03 April 2025

Mushroom

Putting a little internet classic here for my convenience:

personsonable
me holding a gun to a mushroom:
tell me the name of god you fungal piece of shit

mushroom:
can you feel your heart burning? can you feel the struggle within? the fear within me is beyond anything your soul can make. you cannot kill me in a way that matters

me cocking the gun, tears streaming down my face:
I’M NOT FUCKING SCARED OF YOU
miaislying
Hey OP? What the FUCK does this mean?
personsonable
decay exists as an extant form of life
miaislying
That’s a terrifying answer, have a nice day
#philosophy #mushrooms #you cannot kill me in a way that matters #perspective

30 March 2025

Using tokens to clarify the Fate point economy

I have been tinkering with a rules summary sheet for the Fate tabletop roleplaying game for a long time. A sharp-eyed forum commentator caught my earlier version describing the award of Fate points a little misleadingly, which made something belatedly fall into a place in my understanding of the Fate point economy.

I now want to try a different practice for tracking Fate points at the table, using three different counters. I like those little colorful glass “gaming stone” beads.



  A tube of glass beads

The system

  • At the start of each scene —
    1. Give the GM 1 white bead per player
    2. Convert black & red beads into white beads
    3. Give everyone 1 red bead (including the GM)
  • White beads denote Fate points one can use. (Players start a scenario with their characters’ Refresh, or the Fate points they carry over from the previous scenario, whichever is greater.)
  • Black beads denote Fate points which one cannot spend this scene. When the GM (or a character’s own player) invokes an aspect against a character, the player gets a black bead from the Infinite Bank. When a player spends a Fate point to invoke an aspect against another character, they pay a white bead which converts into a black bead for the target; both players and the GM may receive black beads this way.
  • Red beads denote potential Fate points. Every time a character takes a condition from an attack, they get a red bead from the Infinite Bank. If a character leaves the scene by conceding a conflict, they get to keep their red beads; if they leave the scene another way, they lose them. If all GM characters concede, the GM keeps their red beads; if not, the GM loses them.

Why

First, this clarifies the scene-to-scene award of Fate points. Players can see what they have to work with next scene and get immediate feedback when that changes, without confusing what players can spend during the current scene or requiring a retrospective between scenes to get players’ Fate point tallies right.

Second, and more importantly, I hope that it will change the psychology of ending scenes and conceding conflicts:

  • It implies that conceding a conflict is the normal way to end a scene. Red beads inspire loss aversion; if one ends the scene another way, it feels like sacrificing Fate points which one already has waiting. This supports the defeat-defeat-comeback pattern of fiction which Fate tries to emulate.
  • Black & red beads piling up tempts players to get on to the next scene to cash them in, nudging play toward a faster pace.
  • Players hesitate to add conditions until they run out of stress boxes. This makes a bit more visible how taking a mild condition from an attack can pay off with a Fate point while only requires a pretty easy skill check to clear … which comes with fun Team Bonding roleplay.

21 March 2025

Responsibility for Gaza

A capture (and slight refinement) of a bushy Bluesky discussion starting from Starfish saying:

I think [older Democratic electeds] don’t really get that to people younger than say, shit … 40-50 at this point? Israel as the plucky underdog just kinda doesn’t track on an instinctual level. In some ways, the “Israeli Defense Forces as unstoppable supermen” propaganda worked too well, ironically enough.


70 year-olds: Arab-Israeli wars are when every single neighbor of Israel invades it at once and almost win

50 year-olds: Arab-Israeli wars are when Israeli F-15s shoot down 11,000 Syrian MiGs

30 year-olds: Arab-Israeli wars are when the IDF turns somewhere into the lunar surface

I agree that this generation gap in experience explains a lot about the Discourse.

And Loud Penitent offers a counterpoint which opens up bigger questions. (All the boxed quotes which follow are his.)

I think that applies primarily to Gentiles.

Part of the problem here is that for a lot of Jews 10/7 was a pretty explicit reminder “oh yeah these people would like to butcher and rape you and it will not matter if you want peace.” (“These people” here is referring to Hamas, not Palestinians generally — many of whom behaved far better towards their grieving Jewish neighbors than other Gentiles in the moment who were Alive with the Words.)

And a lot of [those Jews] — us, really, I include myself — were really hoping to use 10/7 as an example of “look, our concerns are not wholly unjustified! People really do want us dead! Hamas are actual monsters!”

And then what felt like the entire rest of the public just shrugged and went “so anyway.”

And a minority, smaller but extremely vocal, basically went, “Actually that’s great, more of that, you’re next Zio. Are you a good Jew or a bad Jew?”

This underlines why a lot of Jews like me who call for Palestinian liberation and vigorously fault Israel say that we must name Hamas’ culpability as well.

This underlines why a lot of Jews like me who recognized Israel’s attack on Gaza as genocidal a few weeks after 10/7 are mortified by the antisemtism implicit in so many people unsatisfied with pointing to the immense real wrongs, adding fantastical misrepresentations — calling it an inevitable consequence of Zionism, claiming it emerges from Israel’s longstanding plan to annex Gaza and expel-or-kill all Gazans, framing common horrors of war as demonstrations of Israel’s unique brutality.

people who don’t recognize “so yeah that’s what happens when a war is fought in a dense urban area & one side utterly refuses to surrender, did we just erase WW2 from memory?”

This underlines why a lot of Jews like me insist that — without diminishing Netanyahu’s & the Likudniks’ moral responsibility — advocacy for Palestinian liberation must also recognize how Hamas chose the rivers of blood shed in the last year and a half, callously disinterested in Palestinians’ lives.

Netanyahu is not motivated by wanting the release of hostages … but Israelis are, and demanding the hostages’ release is not just a rationalization of Israel’s attack. Hamas keeping hostages is both morally and legally unjustified.

The elephant in the room is that the reason the Gaza war has turned so horrific is because Hamas has kept refusing to surrender despite in every other respect than keeping its hostages, being unequivocally and dramatically defeated.

Like, in ways that basically any government that gave a fuck about its people would normally be going “alright time to throw in the towel.”

But Hamas does not, and everyone goes “how brave and plucky of them, glory to the resistance!” and not seeing that Hamas is openly doing the meme of: “Some of you may die but that’s a sacrifice I am willing to make.”

[Israel’s] demands are extremely actionable, I’d argue, it’s just that Hamas doesn’t want to do them, because it would constitute their total surrender.

But Hamas’ response is essentially to proclaim that they are entitled to remain free and in power after embarking on a monstrous pogrom, that at most they should be entitled to a return to the status quo, and that they are willing to tolerate any number of Gazan dead to permit this.

They cannot win a war that (in at least its latest phase) they very deliberately started with feverish hopes of total victory, so instead their strategy has essentially become “lose as dramatically and horrifically as possible until the rest of the embarrassed world steps in to stop it.” And the thing is … this isn’t actually how international laws of armed conflict work! Hamas does not actually have a right to expend its people’s lives in perpetuity to preserve their own! There is no “good game, now back to your starting positions!” or “stop! stop! he’s already dead!” clause!

If Hamas is losing a war they started and refuses to give up their (illegally held) hostages or surrender, the international legal response is, bluntly: “Skill issue.”

One can say that at some point the number of Gazan dead has exhausted the moral license for Israel to reclaim its citizens from their illegal, barbaric captivity by force of arms.

But this is a moral appeal. It is not a legal one. And [then one] must honestly admit one is saying it is OK to keep hostages.

Basically the entire basis for negotiations, however necessary, is built on the poisoned foundation of considering the taking of hostages for ransom an acceptable Hamas strategic doctrine, & folks act like they have a right to it.

Like in a classical sense the answer would be “you want to keep holding the hostages, contest them by violence.”

Hamas cannot contest them by violence, because they’re weak, useless cowards who suck at anything other than butchering unarmed or unwary people, so they have civilians do the dying.

Ongoing negotiation is vital, but I cannot imagine it bearing fruit until neither the Likudniks nor Hamas are the agents at the table, since neither of them care to end the bloodshed.

20 March 2025

What the Democratic Party should do

I’m just an interested amateur, but I said this in an exchange with some people with rather different politics who found it clarifying, so it seems worth capturing. Assuming that we have elections in 2026 and 2028, the Democrats should …

  1. … make a persuasively sharp break from their current voice, to get inattentive voters to engage and re-evaluate them. Figures like Sanders, AOC, Walz, and Fetterman are models here, not for their policy agendas but for not sounding like Politicians.
  2. … articulate a clear, coherent vision of the better America they want to build, not a preservation or restoration of the status quo ante Trump.
  3. … fight hard for that vision, both practically and theatrically. Showing up hard is more important than tactical victory, as conservatives have demonstrated for decades.

What vision?

I believe that mainstream Dems underestimate Americans’ appetite for big change; Trump’s success demonstrates that hunger.

I believe that mainstream Dems underestimate the appeal of much of the wild-eyed leftist stuff I would include in the vision, if they presented it properly.

I believe that if we get to build a better America, we should swing for the fences to make it a lot better.

But.

Having the break-envision-fight formula displace the vague, tepid practices of the Democratic Party is more important than almost any policy particulars.

Cas = Carlo !



Characters from ‘Supernatural’ with captions:
  
Sam : Sal Paradise
Dean : Dean Moriarty
Castiel : Carlo Marx

It is well-known that in the original conception of the TV series Supernatural, road-tripping monster-hunting brothers Sam & Dean Winchester are inspired by road-tripping beatniks Sal Paradise & Dean Moriarty in Jack Kerouac’s novel On The Road, who themselves were based on Kerouac and his real-life friend Neal Cassidy.


  
The Winchesters’ car from the TV series ‘Supernatural’ with a quote from Kerouac’s On The Road:
Whither goest thou, America, in thy shiny car in the night?

To my delight, the Tik Tok algorithm has decided that I am a lesbian nerd, so I recently stumbled across a clip arguing that Dean’s bisexuality in On The Road bled into his Supernatural counterpart even before (some of) the show’s production team decided to lean into fans’ enthusiasm for reading Dean that way. The Tok further speculates that this was a big part of why there was so much “Wincest” fanfic about a romance between the brothers starting very early on: actors Jared & Jensen had great screen chemistry, Dean’s bisexuality is Just There, and Dean didn’t have a standing love interest because the show wanted him to be a ramblin’ man, so fans with a taste for slash fiction (non-canonical gay romance, created by and for women fans) just took the next step on the love Dean had already demonstrated, just as they had done when creating the first slashfic about Kirk & Spock.

I said “(some of) the show’s production team” above because for the entire fifteen-year run they were divided about how to respond to queer readings by fans. Some of the team fought against it, others enthusiastically embraced it. Episodes oscillate between deliberate homophobia and the Xena: Warrior Princess thing of maxxing out the Subtext it could fold in while maintaing plausible deniability.

That Tok creator also speculates that the character of Anna The Fallen Angel Who Loves Dean was an attempt to neutralize queer readings by providing the missing love interest for Dean. It didn’t work; either Anna wasn’t compelling enough on the merits (I had forgotten that she existed!) or the audience refused to accept him loving a girl that much. The show abandoned Anna, figuring whaddaya know, it did have another angel on hand whom the audience did like. Castiel got Anna’s planned storyline, minus the explicit romance … but the romance tropes were still there in the story, leading to infinite “Destiel” fanfic.

Persuasive.

That got me thinking about my favorite passage from On The Road, in which Carlo Marx, based on the very gay poet Allen Ginsberg, joins the story:

⋯ And that was the night Dean met Carlo Marx. A tremendous thing happened when Dean met Carlo Marx. Two keen minds that they are, they took to each other at the drop of a hat. Two piercing eyes glanced into two piercing eyes — the holy con-man with the shining mind, and the sorrowful poetic con-man with the dark mind that is Carlo Marx. From that moment on I saw very little of Dean, and I was a little sorry too. Their energies met head-on, I was a lout compared, I couldn’t keep up with them.

[⋯]

They rushed down the street together, digging everything in the early way they had, which later became so much sadder and perceptive and blank. But then they danced down the streets like dingledodies, and I shambled after as I’ve been doing all my life after people who interest me, because the only people for me are the mad ones, the ones who are mad to live, mad to talk, mad to be saved, desirous of everything at the same time, the ones who never yawn or say a commonplace thing, but burn, burn, burn like fabulous yellow roman candles exploding like spiders across the stars and in the middle you see the blue centerlight pop and everybody goes “Awww!” What did they call such young people in Goethe’s Germany? Wanting dearly to learn how to write like Carlo, the first thing you know, Dean was attacking him with a great amorous soul such as only a con-man can have. “Now, Carlo, let me speak — here’s what I’m saying …” I didn’t see them for about two weeks, during which time they cemented their relationship to fiendish allday-allnight-talk proportions.

I doubt that anyone on the Supernatural production team ever connected Castiel to Carlo, but now I cannot un-see it.

19 March 2025

Trump, Nixon, and despair

I wrote this in a fit of insomnia.

As a kid, I inherited hatred for Richard Nixon from my parents. In the years since, I have gone a few rounds of obsession with him. Books, films, articles from the time. After each cycle, I came out hating him more.

We have had worse than Nixon. Harding’s corruption and stupidity. Bush The Younger’s warmongering and torture prisons. Jackson’s genocide. Johnson sabotaging Reconstruction. Twelve slavers — twelve! Jefferson Davis, the anti-president. And then, well … y’know.

Despite that, Nixon inhabits a place of special disgust in my heart. So dishonored that he resigned. So toxic to the Republic that many seriously thought it best to pardon him of his crimes before even naming what they were, just to get us to stop talking about him. (Though no, that was not what was best.)


Yet now I find myself thinking:

“Sure, Nixon was corrupt, bigoted, dishonest, and had a gawdawful policy agenda … but he was intelligent, informed, skillful at the work, and committed to what he sincerely thought was best for the country.”

“Sure, Nixon undermined American institutions … but he did know what they were well enough to pretend to care about them, rather than witlessly shattering them as a toddler prince.”

“Sure, Nixon lied relentlessly … but he respected truth enough to make an effort to lie convincingly, which required knowing what the truth was, knowing the basic facts of the physical universe.”

“Sure, Nixon was corrupt … but he did not brag about it.”

“Sure, he resigned in disgrace … but that showed that he could conceive disgrace.”

Because now Americans have elected — twice! — a President who makes me yearn for Nixon’s competence … a President who makes Nixon’s vice look good because it paid the minimal tribute to virtue of hypocrisy.

Because every day I see more people saying things utterly detached from reality, saying things nightmarish in their cruelty. Not just internet randos, or paid propagandists, but people I know personally. Even a few I once counted as friends.


I am not naïve. I know history. I know American history.

But still, I am having a moment of despair at the thought that the world we have made is possible at all.


Understand that my pang of nostalgia for Nixon is a failing of mine, not a an apologia for him. Historian Rick Nixonland Perlstein reminds us:

Watergate was great for Nixon. Gets off scot-free for the quasi-fascist 2nd term plans he wasn’t able to carry out. Protected via firing his entire cabinet and making them pledge loyalty to regain their posts, his Financial Year ’74 hyper-austerity budget, the Malek Manual, and vengeance plans on the tapes. Oh, and impoundment.

13 March 2025

A Tryst With Destiny

A wise friend reminded me of this speech, and it is profound enough that I figured it was wise to keep a copy in full here. My friend also says it makes a great pairing with Lincoln’s Cooper Union Address, and I vigorously agree.

Jawaharlal Nehru delivered it to the Constituent Assembly of India in New Delhi on August 14 1947. The words below are his, not mine.


Long years ago we made a tryst with destiny, and now the time comes when we shall redeem our pledge, not wholly or in full measure, but very substantially.

At the stroke of the midnight hour, when the world sleeps, India will awake to life and freedom. A moment comes, which comes but rarely in history, when we step out from the old to the new, when an age ends, and when the soul of a nation, long suppressed, finds utterance.

It is fitting that at this solemn moment we take the pledge of dedication to the service of India and her people and to the still larger cause of humanity.

At the dawn of history India started on her unending quest, and trackless centuries are filled with her striving and the grandeur of her success and her failures. Through good and ill fortune alike she has never lost sight of that quest or forgotten the ideals which gave her strength. We end today a period of ill fortune and India discovers herself again.

The achievement we celebrate today is but a step, an opening of opportunity, to the greater triumphs and achievements that await us. Are we brave enough and wise enough to grasp this opportunity and accept the challenge of the future?

Freedom and power bring responsibility. The responsibility rests upon this assembly, a sovereign body representing the sovereign people of India. Before the birth of freedom we have endured all the pains of labour and our hearts are heavy with the memory of this sorrow. Some of those pains continue even now. Nevertheless, the past is over and it is the future that beckons to us now.

That future is not one of ease or resting but of incessant striving so that we may fulfil the pledges we have so often taken and the one we shall take today. The service of India means the service of the millions who suffer. It means the ending of poverty and ignorance and disease and inequality of opportunity.

The ambition of the greatest man of our generation has been to wipe every tear from every eye. That may be beyond us, but as long as there are tears and suffering, so long our work will not be over.

And so we have to labour and to work, and work hard, to give reality to our dreams. Those dreams are for India, but they are also for the world, for all the nations and peoples are too closely knit together today for anyone of them to imagine that it can live apart.

Peace has been said to be indivisible; so is freedom, so is prosperity now, and so also is disaster in this one world that can no longer be split into isolated fragments.

To the people of India, whose representatives we are, we make an appeal to join us with faith and confidence in this great adventure. This is no time for petty and destructive criticism, no time for ill will or blaming others. We have to build the noble mansion of free India where all her children may dwell.

The appointed day has come — the day appointed by destiny — and India stands forth again, after long slumber and struggle, awake, vital, free and independent. The past clings on to us still in some measure and we have to do much before we redeem the pledges we have so often taken. Yet the turning point is past, and history begins anew for us, the history which we shall live and act and others will write about.

It is a fateful moment for us in India, for all Asia and for the world. A new star rises, the star of freedom in the east, a new hope comes into being, a vision long cherished materialises. May the star never set and that hope never be betrayed!

We rejoice in that freedom, even though clouds surround us, and many of our people are sorrow-stricken and difficult problems encompass us. But freedom brings responsibilities and burdens and we have to face them in the spirit of a free and disciplined people.

On this day our first thoughts go to the architect of this freedom, the father of our nation, who, embodying the old spirit of India, held aloft the torch of freedom and lighted up the darkness that surrounded us.

We have often been unworthy followers of his and have strayed from his message, but not only we but succeeding generations will remember this message and bear the imprint in their hearts of this great son of India, magnificent in his faith and strength and courage and humility. We shall never allow that torch of freedom to be blown out, however high the wind or stormy the tempest.

Our next thoughts must be of the unknown volunteers and soldiers of freedom who, without praise or reward, have served India even unto death.

We think also of our brothers and sisters who have been cut off from us by political boundaries and who unhappily cannot share at present in the freedom that has come. They are of us and will remain of us whatever may happen, and we shall be sharers in their good and ill fortune alike.

The future beckons to us. Whither do we go and what shall be our endeavour? To bring freedom and opportunity to the common man, to the peasants and workers of India; to fight and end poverty and ignorance and disease; to build up a prosperous, democratic and progressive nation, and to create social, economic and political institutions which will ensure justice and fullness of life to every man and woman.

We have hard work ahead. There is no resting for any one of us till we redeem our pledge in full, till we make all the people of India what destiny intended them to be.

We are citizens of a great country, on the verge of bold advance, and we have to live up to that high standard. All of us, to whatever religion we may belong, are equally the children of India with equal rights, privileges and obligations. We cannot encourage communalism or narrow-mindedness, for no nation can be great whose people are narrow in thought or in action.

To the nations and peoples of the world we send greetings and pledge ourselves to cooperate with them in furthering peace, freedom and democracy.

And to India, our much-loved motherland, the ancient, the eternal and the ever-new, we pay our reverent homage and we bind ourselves afresh to her service. Jai Hind [Victory to India].

11 March 2025

Free Mahmoud Khalil

DHS agents broke into the home of Columbia University student Mahmoud Khalil and detained him without charges. Khalil holds a Green Card for permanent residency; the Trump Administration is evidently trying to revoke it and deport him.

I have contributed $18 to support him and his legal defense. I encourage all people of consicence to make contributions if you can. I encourage making contributions in multiples of $18, exercising Jewish custom as a sign of solidarity, even if one is a gentile.

Team Trump are after Khalil because he is a Palestinian involved in organizing anti-Israel protests at Columbia University. They are violating due process in several ways, including that they stonewalled habeas corpus until that got too much attention. I have seen no credible argument that he violated any law.

I am not an Israel hardliner. When I call moves in support of Palestinian liberation antisemitic I extend a lot of grace to people who have just not thought through the implications of what they say. I remind y’all of that to contextualize that Khalil has said things about Israel-Palestine which I find repulsively antisemitic.

That is not a deterrent to my donation to his defense; it is one of the reasons why I consider it important. The Trump administration’s attempt to deport Khalil is a wedge to create openings for arbitrary deportation. To truly stand for liberal democracy — the universality of rights, for due process, for limits to state power — we must fight for them on the behalf of the people we like the least.

More commentaries

Vox has a characteristically thorough explainer; one can expect them to add to it with new developments.


On Truth Social, the President said:

Following my previously signed Executive Orders, ICE proudly apprehended and detained Mahmoud Khalil, a Radical Foreign Pro-Hamas Student on the campus of Columbia University. This is the first arrest of many to come. We know there are more students at Columbia and other Universities across the Country who have engaged in pro-terrorist, anti-Semitic, anti-American activity, and the Trump Administration will not tolerate it. Many are not students, they are paid agitators. We will find, apprehend, and deport these terrorist sympathizers from our country — never to return again. If you support terrorism, including the slaughtering of innocent men, women, and children, you presence is contrary to our national and foreign policy interests, and you are not welcome here. We expect every one of America’s colleges and Universities to comply. Thank you!

Journalist Jeff Sharlet reads that post closely:

Trump celebrating an illegal detention by name tells us a great deal.

  1. This wasn’t overreach; it’s the plan.
  2. Fact that Khalil is legal resident w/ no evident Hamas sympathies isn’t a glitch; it’s the point.
  3. Gaza protesters are means to an end; real target is higher ed.

I know there are going to be good people who have a hard time with that 3rd point. But after a few decades on the rightwing beat, I can tell you Gaza protesters are, to fascists, only the latest excuse. Trump not only doesn’t care about fighting antisemitism, real or imagined; he’s stoking it.

Journalist Josh Marshall underlines:

Those who know me know I was highly critical of what I saw as some of the rhetorical excesses of the campus protests. Khalil and I wld probably get into a spat immediately. It’s all the more important for people who believe as I do to say clearly, the protections of the law are for everyone.

This is not only outside of our traditions and values. It’s flatly illegal. This is the first step to others, not just green card holders but citizens getting rounded up in the middle of the night. Green cards can be revoked. But only for specific reasons. And only after a judicial process.

If the government has a real arguemnt, tell it to a judge. Trump wants everyone to feel afraid, foes and friends. Their liberty is at his whim. That’s a King not a president. We’re Americans. We’re not slaves or supplicants. Elected officials serve us. We don’t answer to them. We talk back to them.

Blogger Emptywheel describes in detail that it’s not the shameless executive power grab in plain sight, it’s the attempt to retcon it afterwards:

⋯ it appears that the Trump Administration made a shameless power grab without doing their investigative work first. So what we see going forward may be nothing more than an attempt to retcon it, to change their story after the fact to adjust for new facts

[⋯]

There’s that old adage, which seems inoperative since Nixon, that it’s not the crime, it’s the cover-up. With Trump and under expansive authorities of Article II, it often looks like it’s not the initial power grab that might create legal problems. It’s the attempt to retcon that power grab after it becomes clear the facts were not what Trump or others believed when the Administration took action.

Over and over, Trump 2.0 has taken aggressive steps based off bullshit, much of it coming from Elon or other far right propagandists. And over and over, Trump’s top people keep creating problems for themselves as they try to adjust the (legal) narrative to match their evolving understanding of the facts.

So as we go forward with discussions about Khalil, don’t necessarily assume that legal justifications that the government could have used were yet the legal justifications they may argue going forward.

John Ganz makes similar points:

The details here are very important: agents of the state without charging a crime or presenting a clear legal basis have detained a legal resident and are threatening him with deportation

[⋯]

The state cannot make it up as it goes along. It can’t seize people in the night and invent flimsy pretexts later. And if it does, then we no longer live under the rule of law, we live in a police state.

NPR reports a chilling interview on 13 March:

Journalist Michel Martin:
Mahmoud Khalil says he acted as a spokesperson for pro-Palestinian demonstrators and as a mediator with Columbia University, where he was a graduate student. As you know, Mr. Edgar, any conduct that can be legally sanctioned must be described. So, what is the specific conduct the government alleges that Mr. Khalil engaged in that merits removal from the United States.

DHS Secretary Troy Edgar:
I think what you saw there is you’ve got somebody that has come into the country on a visa. And as he’s going through the visa process, he is coming in to basically be a student that is not going to be supporting terrorism. So, the issue is he was let into the country on this visa. He has been promoting this antisemitism activity at the university. And at this point, the State Department has revoked his visa for supporting a terrorist type organization. And we’re the enforcing agencies, so we’ve come in to basically arrest him.

Martin:
A White House official told the Free Press that there’s no allegation that he broke any laws. So, again, I have to ask, what specifically constitutes terrorist activity that he was supporting? What exactly do you say he did?

Edgar:
Well, like I said, when you apply for a visa, you go through the process to be able to say that you’re here on a student visa, that doesn’t afford you all the rights of coming in and basically going through this process, agitating and supporting Hamas. So, at this point, yeah, the Secretary of State and the State Department maintains the right to revoke the visa, and that's what they’ve done.

Martin:
How did he support Hamas? Exactly what did he do?

Edgar:
Well, I think you can see it on TV, right? This is somebody that we’ve invited and allowed the student to come into the country, and he’s put himself in the middle of the process of basically pro-Palestinian activity. And at this point, like I said, the Secretary of State can review his visa process at any point and revoke it.

[⋯ more talking in circles ⋯]

Edgar:
I think if he would have declared he's a terrorist, we would have never let him in.

Martin:
And what did he engage in that constitutes terrorist activity?

Edgar:
I mean, Michel, have you watched it on TV? It's pretty clear.

Michel:
No, it isn’t. Well, explain it to those of us who have not or perhaps others have not. What exactly did you do?

Edgar:
Well, I think it’s clear or we wouldn't be talking about it. I mean, the reality is that if you watch and see what he’s done on the university …

Martin:
Do you not know? Are you telling us that you're not aware?

Edgar:
I find it interesting that you’re not aware.

Martin:
I think you could explain it to us. I think others would like to know exactly what the offenses are, what the propaganda was that you allege, what the activity was that you allege. Well, perhaps we can talk again and you can give us more details about this.

The interview ends there, without an answer.

Edgar demonstrates authoritarian sensibilities. They reject rule of law, institutional limits, or any other check on the direct exercise of power; indeed, they find the liberal insistence on clear & explicit rules and adjudication of those rules morally disgusting. They say You Just Know and actively evade naming how, because they value “loyalty” which does not ask.

And “I find it interesting”? That’s a threat.


Ellie Mystal warns that we are asking the wrong questions:

The only relevant question is not “How can the government do this?” It is “How can we who oppose this fascist regime?”

[⋯]

People expect or hope for the law to restrain Trump and his regime’s use of violence. People keep waiting for Trump to clearly and unambiguously “break” the law, as if doing so will trigger some kind of failsafe protocol causing the statue of Abraham Lincoln to self-animate out of its chair like a democracy-defending golem. But (as I have written many, many times) the law simply doesn’t work like that. The law is not an objective set of rules that snap into action when they are violated. Instead, the law is an argument. It can be bent, stretched, or straight-up ignored by the side that wins power.

Every authoritarian ruler throughout history, from Lucius Cornelius Sulla Felix to Vladimir Putin, has had an argument for why their actions are “legal.” I can scream till my vocal cords snap that the government’s actions are illegal, but successful dictators make their actions “legal” through iron-fisted control of both the courts and whatever ineffectual legislatures they allow to exist. Trump is no different. He’s got an argument for why he can abduct a man from his apartment in New York and send him to a for-profit concentration camp in Louisiana. He’s got an argument for why he can revoke the green card of an activist for exercising his free speech rights. He’s got an argument for why he can deport people who oppose genocide as long as they’re non-white.

Adam Serwer says Mahmoud Khalil’s detention is a trial run:

Trump’s assault on basic First Amendment principles may begin with Khalil, but it will not end with him. Trump’s ultimate target is anyone he finds useful to target. Trump and his advisers simply hope the public is foolish or shortsighted enough to believe that if they are not criminals, or deviants, or terrorists, or foreigners, or traitors, then they have no reason to worry. Eventually no one will have any rights that the state need respect, because the public will have sacrificed them in the name of punishing people it was told did not deserve them.

The Trump administration began its drive for absolute power by ignoring congressional appropriations of foreign aid, which are laws. It calculated that Americans would be callous enough not to care about the catastrophic loss of human life abroad and that the absence of backlash would enable the administration to set a precedent for defying duly passed laws without consequence. Trump began his assault on antidiscrimination law with a vicious campaign against trans people — but has already broadened that campaign into a sweeping attempt at a great resegregation of American life. The detention of Mahmoud Khalil begins a dangerous new phase, in which the Trump administration will attempt to assert an authority to deprive people of due process based on their political views.

[⋯]

It does not matter if you approve of Khalil’s views. It does not matter if you support the Israelis or the Palestinians. It does not matter if you are a liberal or a conservative. It does not even matter if you voted for Trump or Kamala Harris. If the state can deprive an individual of his freedom just because of his politics, which is what appears to have happened here, then no one is safe. You may believe that Khalil does not deserve free speech or due process. But if he does not have them, then neither do you. Neither do I.

Anti-commentary

Over on Bluesky, Judith Shulevitz wrote a thread which showed up shared on my feed as a bad example, and I want to foster some precision about what is wrong with it.

I strongly defend Mahmoud Khalil’s right to have rights, due process, and all the other protections to which his green card entitles him. The way he is being treated is egregious and wrong. But I think we should be clear about what he has done. His actions do not constitute protected speech because even free speech is constrained by rules — time, place, manner, and other legitimate restrictions. He hasn’t been punished by any disciplinary body, but he’s no martyr.

Take the case we’ve all followed closely: the occupation of the Barnard library.

First, he was part of a group that barged onto the campus without permission — the campus is not open. Then he was part of a group that barged into the library, knocking over or manhandling (not clear which) a security guard to the point at which he had to go to the hospital.

Is protest allowed indoors? No. Here’s FIRE: Because of concerns about disruption, noise, and even fire safety, colleges may generally impose more restrictive rules on what students can do inside buildings.

Then Khalil was part of a group shouting through a bullhorn into a library. It is expressly forbidden to do that, because’s it’s a dramatic disruption of the educational process. Call it the hecklers’ veto of studying. Then he was part of a group that handed out leaflets stamped by Hamas, among other things, and put up a poster of Sinwar.

That’s not something that should be prosecuted by the government — it should have First Amendment protection — but private universities don’t have to abide by the First Amendment; they do have to abide by Title VI. The material they distributed celebrated the massacre of Israelis. That is a violation of rules against threatening or harassing a group on the basis of national origin, and maybe on the basis of religion.

And let’s think for a minute about what they were protesting: the expulsion of students who burst into a class taught by an Israeli and shut it down and refused to leave. Meanwhile, they handed out flyers (well, since the students refused to take them, they flung then on the ground) that featured, among other things, a giant jackboot stomping on the Star of David. None of this is protected speech. It’s also effectively heckling — preventing the teacher from speaking.

So Khalil is no hero. It’s just that there is no basis in law, as far as I can tell, for the way the government is mistreating him.

I saw a lot of people responding to the merits of her critique of Khalil. I think:

  • Khalil’s Palestinian liberation advocacy serves a vital cause but is pretty darned bad in the particulars
  • Shulevitz’ commentary addresses some real questions about his advocacy in ways I sharply disagree with
  • Shulevitz’ take on his advocacy efforts is still legitimate
  • It is bad to chew on the particulars of his advocacy like this

Yes, Shulevitz bookends her thread with the actually important thing, the lawlessness authoritarianism of the government’s actions.

But.

While I don’t like to rest too much on faulting the tone of commentaries, it does in fact matter how the kicker saying “it’s just that” trivializes the important thing. It does in fact matter how this comment sweeps past the main thing to spend most of its time examining Khalil’s failings.

We have to make the important thing the important thing.

07 March 2025

The Dem establishment and trans liberation

This post lines up the forks in a Bluesky discussion

Reflecting on California governor Gavin Newsom taking a turn against trans liberation over bullshit about trans atheletes, Jamelle Bouie observes:

The thing about chasing what you think is public opinion is that if and when things turn you will have made a bunch of statements and taken a bunch of stances that you’ll have to disavow. probably a better strategy just to say what you actually believe and stand by it. anyway, this guy sucks.

John Rodgers underlines:

Interracial marriage did not cross 50% approval in the US until 1996, when I was 30 years old. Good political messaging drives opinion, it doesn’t follow it.

Newsom understands this better than almost every other major pol. His early, vigorous support for same-sex marriage — breaking with the Democratic Party by having San Francisco issue marriage licenses when he was mayor — bucked the conventional wisdom and moved public opinion practically overnight. It makes him especially culpable for his betrayal.

Sharp-eyed journalist David Forbes replied with sage wisdom:

I think an underrated part of this is the degree to which anti-trans bigotry is an elite phenomenon across political parties. That comes out in everything from the New York Times’ anti-trans crusade to, well, Newsom’s actions here.

The gentry leans conservative (also why Newsom and Kirk can chat like this). Cis gays in marriages? Outside the far-right they can go with that. But trans rights are driven by a working class movement that threatens some core status quos around gender and identity, so they're frantic to crush it.

I asked about reading trans liberation as a “working class” movement, since I tend to take elites as fearing trans liberation as an elite movement resisted by non-elites. Forbes continued:

In U.S. especially, elites always think they’re more salt of the earth than they are. Also: see painting rural gentry as working class.

Trans liberation gets painted otherwise, but overwhelmingly comes from poor / working class. On the ground a lot of “how dare they talk back to me” reaction from liberal pols.

Those elites viewed marriage as the concession (perhaps with some toothless non-discrimination laws too) so after that the “gay rights” box was checked. On the ground I see a fair amount of queerphobia from liberal pols around any continuing activism and about queers outside the elite.

One local pol (wealthy her entire life) exemplifies this. In private, contemptuous of trans organizing as “baristas with weird hair and pronouns” and felt that support for marriage a decade ago and a proclamation for pride each year was “more than enough.” Newsom’s turn ain’t all that surprising.

I suspect that part of the thing with marriage is how the Dem establishment were blindsided by how quickly popular opinion turned once Newsom broke the ice. Since they thought it would never fly, they have to rationalize that it burned up all the political capital. Of course all of that is animated by their own queerphobia which they do not want to admit to themselves.

06 March 2025

After the war, the dishes

There’s a little memoir I read on the internet ages ago. I have tried in vain to find it again. I find myself thinking about it more and more.

The narrator describes how in the 1970s he and his colleagues would go to lunch at a little restaurant near their office, run by a sweet, graying immigrant couple. They had family pictures all over the walls, memories of the Old Country. They loved talking with the customers.

One day, the memoirist goes out to lunch there with the usual crew, plus a guy in his 60s who was visiting their offices. The new guy is surprisingly interested in the family photos. When the owners drop by their table to talk, the new guy asks them some questions about the photos.

Four or five questions in, the sweet old couple are angry. How dare you ask that?

The usual lunch gang are still baffled. What has gone wrong?

The new guy asks, “Will you tell them, or do I have to?”

Two minutes later they are leaving the restaurant, the little old lady screaming at them. “You don’t understand! You were not there! You don’t know what the Jews did to us!

05 March 2025

Ukraine, NATO, and Russia

flag of Ukraine, with sunflowers in the yellow field

I have seen a resurgence of a false account of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, so I have assembled a debunking here. I expect I may add resources over time, if it keeps coming up.

The false thesis goes something like this:


It is wrong for the West (the US & Western Europe) to fault Russia for invading Ukraine. It was a predictable response to Western foolishness & aggessiveness toward Russia.

Given Napoleon in the 19th century and Hitler in the 20th, Russians have good reasons to worry about security threats from the West. Since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russians have said clearly that they would read expansion of NATO toward Russia as an existential threat, so the West promised back in the 1990s not to rouse that concern.

The West betrayed that promise with aggressive expansion of NATO, toward the end of Western troops right on Russia’s border with Ukraine.

Much as the Soviets created a buffer of client states in Eastern Europe during the Cold War, Russia has seized part of eastern Ukraine as a buffer against the West now. Putin is eager to embrace peace with Ukraine, if they simply allow that ethnically-Russian territory to have an independent, Russia-friendly government, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelens’kyi refuses because he is an instrument of the West’s dangerous betrayal of Russia.


I dug down the rabbit hole of this argument a couple of years ago. It is deceitful Russian propaganda.

False history

The biggest hole in this thesis is how Ukraine has not joined NATO. That should end the argument right there.


But but but, they say, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was triggered by the security threat presented by a pattern of aggressive NATO expansion pointing to Ukraine eventually joining.

This does not hold water.

Russia invaded Ukraine in the 2020s because the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania which share a border with Russia joined NATOin ’04? Between then and Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, the Russians sent weapons and troops into Ukraine starting in 2014 while the only addition to NATO was North Macedonia ’20, which does not share a border with Russia. The timeline makes no sense.

But but but, they say, that still did break the promise the West made to the Russians back in the 1990s.

No. The West made no such promise.


But but but, they say, there has been talk of Ukraine joining NATO!

True. The Ukranian parliament voted to pursue NATO membership at the end of 2014, reversing their prior disinterest.

Aha oho oho, they say, Ukraine changed their tune because in 2014 the West created the Maidan Revolution in Ukraine in order to get a friendly government which would support NATO expansion.

That reading compounds several absurdities.

It ignores the Ukrainian motivation that earlier in 2014, Russia sent weapons and troops into eastern Ukraine and annexed Crimea on Ukraine’s southern border.

Yes, Maidan did have Western support, but it was an organic popular movement which did not need the help. Ukrainians have obvious reasons to favor building ties to the (rich & democratic) West over ties to Russia, which is impoverished, ruled by a dictator who denies Ukrainian national legitimacy, and genocided millions of Ukrainians in the 20th century.

Again, how is the West “pushing” for NATO expansion if a decade after Ukraine made these overtures, it still is not a member? For the last decade, NATO has responded to Ukraine, “yeah, okay, we can offer some support and someday maybe we will let you join”, while some NATO member states remain hesitant over the prospect, since it would commit them to potential war with Russia.


And Zelens’kyi? He refuses “peace” because the only “peace” on offer from Russia is seizure of Ukranian territory with zero security guarantees against further Russian aggression. That is not diplomacy, that is a demand of surrender.

Moral absurdity

The claim that the West provoked Russia is not just absurd, it is morally repulsive. NATO is not an aggressive alliance, it is a mutual-defense agreement: an attack on one is an attack on all. Sying that Russia had to invade Ukraine to prevent it from joining an alliance which would defend it from invasion is like saying:

“That domestic violence shelter is responsible for provoking Ukraine’s ex-husband to break into her house and beat her again, like he did years ago. They should not have endangered Ukraine by accepting a call to their hotline after he showed up pounding on her door.”

References

04 March 2025

Trump and war

Capturing nested threads from Bluesky. These are quotes, not me. But for what it’s worth, I agree with Hilzoy.

Ian Leslie

The Fight: Notes on the Oval Office Debacle, Plus a Rattle Bag

[⋯]

Second, and relatedly, I get the feeling that many politicians and commentators haven’t quite grasped the strength of Trump’s aversion to war. It’s one of the things that makes him a very unusual president. This is something that crystalized for me in my excellent conversation with Jemima Kelly. As we’ve just seen, Trump is frequently belligernet, aggressive, and angry in person, and instinctively we expect a leader’s personality to align with their attitude to military engagement. But inside the red-faced hawk is a dove, with an almost physical horror of violence.

[⋯]

Trump is as close to a pacifist as we’ve seen in the White House, more dovish than any US president since Carter. He does not seem interested in the exercise of American military power at all, and is openly cynical about America’s motivations for entering into previous conflicts like Iraq. He is bent on shrinking America’s defence spending. In short, Trump’s attitude to American military power is almost indistinguishable from that of, say, Jeremy Corbyn. Given everything else about him, this has been understandably hard for the rest of the world to get their heads around.

Jamelle Bouie

Trump was literally president for four years during which he wildly escalated drone warfare, tried to provoke a war with Iran, and got into dangerous saber-rattling with North Korea. Now, he is threatening to take Greenland and the Panama Canal by force. What is this horseshit?

Why do so many people refuse to grapple with the actually existing Donald Trump!?!?

Judah Grunstein

I think it’s important to distinguish Trump I from what we’re seeing now, but also to tease out where and how Trump I diverged from US militarized foreign policy, and where it didn’t, to understand why some people see him as a “peace” president.

I’ve tried previously, so here goes again.

First, the primary case for Trump I being a warmonger is, as Jamelle Bouie notes, the escalation of the drone war but also the air war against ISIS in Mosul. There was also the initial escalation in Afghanistan.

As I’ve argued in the past, though, these both occurred early in his first term.

And they came in response to demand from the Pentagon on both counts. To my mind, that reflects the way the Department Of Defense tends to roll every inexperienced first-term president to get its wish list early.

That it also satisfied Trump’s penchant for chest-thumping doesn’t necessarily change that.

Later in Trump’s first term, in Afghanistan, Somalia, and Syria, he tried to remove US forces from longstanding deployments. In Syria, he was essentially blocked by the Pentagon from doing so on multiple occasions, and in Afghanistan he was (rightly) criticized for making the rush to the exits that Biden consummated.

I disagree that he tried to start a war with Iran, mainly because on two occasions Trump backed away from one: the airstrike he called back en route after the downed US drone and the decision to deescalate despite US casualties in the Iranian riposte to Soleimani’s assassination.

The Soleimani assassination was certainly reckless, but there, too, I suspect it was pushed by Pompeo and channeled the US military’s longstanding grudge against him, dating back at least to the Iraq occupation and probably further.

Finally, with regard to US alliances, Trump’s hostility to them coded as “restraint” and retrenchment in a way that would in theory reduce US exposure to moral hazard and unintended escalation, even if in practice he didn’t really move the needle much on forward basing or commitments.

Why do I think this is important enough to now on multiple occasions take what is a very unpopular side of a debate no one in the anti-Trump camp (of which I am a part) even wants to have?

For two reasons.

First, Trump targeted legacy wars in ways that he can opportunistically use to portray himself as anti-war. And he targeted US security commitments in ways that allow him to claim he achieved changed behavior of US allies that decades of lectures about freeriding by Bush and Obama had not. So politically, it’s important to recognize that, instead of just reflexively claiming he was a warmonger. Because any US president who really wants a war against a non-nuclear state can get it.

Second, and more importantly, to blame the areas where Trump’s first-term record was bellicose lets the interests behind the militarization of US foreign policy, particularly in the Pentagon, off the hook. And that leaves the militarization of US foreign policy in place.

To be very clear, I think Trump is a bully who now wields the most preponderant military power any individual in the human history ever has. That’s not a good or comforting combination.

I don’t think he’s a pacifist or even anti-war, but neither do I think he’s a warmonger.

We’re all less safe with him in office, especially given his imperialist agenda this time around.

But while Trump is a problem, he is not the only problem with regard to US militarization.

Louis Evans

At the risk of over-simplifying, I think the postwar hegemonic consensus in the US was that the US should fight (only) “Good Wars” — justified by principle and necessity rather than avarice or aggrandizement, restrained in conduct, pursuing a peaceful settlement of self-determination.

This consensus held across parties, across civilian-military, and across both elite and mass sectors, although of course it was interpreted differently in each place.

Proponents of wars went to great length to cast their wars as Good. The primary critical posture was that some war was in fact Bad.

The left wing criticism was that the military establishment systematically misrepresented which wars were Good; the radical critique was that wars are axiomatically Bad.

Donald Trump (and his faction) represent a different position.

Donald Trump is against Good Wars, and in favor of Bad Wars.

He views Goodness as suckerdom. He views Badness as savvy. He is opposed to principle or necessity, and in favor of avarice and aggrandizement. He is against good conduct in wars and in favor of war crimes.

Those who found themselves outside the consensus recognized that Trump, too, was outside.

But they (often) lack imagination as to how many positions are outside the Good Wars consensus, and as to their relative strength.


“Good” vs. “bad” is a fuzzy, pejorative, polemical, and basilectal choice here, but I do think it actually points to a core element of Trump’s posture. He is, quite self-consciously, a Heel, and he does international relations as a Heel.

Lots of analysis — pro and con! — embed the idea that he is a Face, but he’s not, and he’s not trying to be.

Adding some final thoughts as this reply helped clarify something I’d been struggling to articulate.

The reason Trump can portray himself and be portrayed as “anti-war” is because he opposed the wars the US historically fought and alliances it formed as part of its global role in the liberal order.

So another way of expressing what Louis Evans says here is that Trump rejects the kinds of wars most people associate with the US because he views the global order and the US role in it as a chump’s game.

But he embraced the use of force in cases that transgressed the traditional US role.

Hilzoy

For my part, I think Trump is neither a warmonger nor a pacifist. Those are the wrong axes. He is a person with the emotional maturity of a three year old who has absolutely no idea of what’s at stake in his decisions and is given to temper tantrums.

If you think he’s a warmonger, it’s probably because he likes to threaten people, and does not draw the line at threatening them with military force; and also because he seems to have no clue what that would mean.

If you think he’s a peacemaker, it’s probably because he sometimes says things to that effect, and also because many of the things that we might have responded to with force before are things that simply do not register with him at all.

He does not react to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine not only because he likes Putin and hates Zelensky, but because he just does not see — at all — what’s wrong with what Russia did.

But ‘pro-war’ or ‘pro-peace’ is just not the right way to assess him.

27 February 2025

Blue lives matter more

Capturing a 2023 Twitter thread by Katie Sponslor:

I have been taught to yell “stop resisting” and “drop your weapon” after firing a gun, because bystanders will remember you said it and their memory will automatically reverse the order of the events to make it make sense. Their testimony will support yours, because of this.

I have been told to “loosen up and have fun, it’s fun! Why are you so serious?” When doing a shoot / don’t shoot scenario training.

I have been told that deescalation techniques will get me and other officers killed and as a smaller LEO [law enforcement officer], I was justified escalating my use of force faster than my colleagues because I was always in danger so I should use it.

I’ve been told my only job is to go home at night.

I’ve been told all of these things in formal, controlled and regulated Police Academies. I have gone through 3. I have heard some of these things more than once.

When I questioned these things in my third academy, and stated that they were inconsistent with the ethics of policing, I was kicked out of the academy on my last day. I had completed and excelled at all the graded tasks, but was told “you aren’t what we want in our force.”

I loved my job. I gave a lot to do it for 5 years. In that time, I never broke leather on my holster. I never fired my taser. I put my hands on an individual twice, both times a simple arm bar hold that immediately caused both individuals to comply. Neither individual was hurt.

I have been in many sticky situations in that time. Faced several armed individuals. I worked in a National Park, yes, but in a high crime area. Being a park ranger, means working alone most of the time. I could not afford to escalate a situation, and I didn’t.

In 4 words, a police academy commander ended my career. “You [don’t] belong here.” After 16 years of federal service without a single complaint or write up, I lost any chance of working the final 4 years I needed for retirement.

With student loan debt, living in a new city, with a teenager, I lost my job, my insurance, and the ability to use the education and experience I had worked so hard to achieve.

I don’t regret it.

I still believe in resource protection, it matters, but I no longer believe the system of policing we have is the way to achieve it.

During my campaign for the HoD I got lambasted by my Republican opponent for saying, “I know cops, I’ve worked with them, trained with them, and some of them are my friends, some are not, and some of them are murderers.” I know it’s not politically expedient, but…

Some. Of. Them. Are. Murderers.

We cannot reform institutions which do this. We can only replace them.

04 February 2025

Artificial superintelligence

A start on an index of useful articles:

Wait But Why — The Artificial Intelligence Revolution 1 & 2

A lively and accessible introduction to the Bostrom-ish argument that artificial superintelligence is plausible, and why the prospect is scarier than it might first appear.

Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People

An argument that the Bostrom-ish vision of superintelligence is a seductive mirage.

31 January 2025

What motivates the “tech” right?

To support my index of resources about neoreaction and adjacent far right movements which overlap with “tech” culture, I have taken the liberty of capturing commentaries from other people tucked into Xitter & Facebook. These are not quite the same as my reading, but both are illuminating in exploring how “tech” executive culture itself understands the shift. Emphasis in quotes are the authors’, not mine.

Aaron Bartley

3 February 2025

Why are they doing this? What’s motiving the techno-feudalists (Musk, Thiel, Vance, Andreessen and their minions) to wreck our country and tank the economy?

I’ve subjected myself to hours of YouTube interviews and dozens of screeds by the tech overlords and their high priests. They have made no effort to hide their motivations. This is my attempt at a basic synthesis of how they explain their shift from neo-liberals to Trumpists:

  1. The techno-feudalists have billions invested in crypto and without a big push from the government and the removal of all regulations, their money will be lost. Crypto has not mainstreamed in the way they expected, both because of Biden-era regulations on speculative investments and because the public just isn’t into it. They need the state to manage the transition to crypto.
  2. Similarly, they’re gravely concerned about the trillions they’ve invested in AI. Any amount of regulation or constraints by the state is seen as a death-knell. They know that AI has prompted a speculative bubble and they need the state to manage the bubble through subsidies and contracts. They also need the state to aggressively shield the US from Chinese AI technology.
  3. Both crypto and AI are burning up the earth. The electricity demands of both AI and crypto are enormous. They need a completely deregulated energy industry and rapid shift away from any climate policy. Even the mention of climate change is a threat to their fortunes.
  4. China has caught up faster than they expected in all realms of tech. They need an ultra-protectionist/nationalist regime to keep Chinese technology at bay.
  5. Lastly, they resent their employees deeply for the political concerns they’ve been raising about climate change and DEI. They blame the “radicalizing” influences of elite institutions and want the government to shut these institutions down or reform them heavily.

(Edited: As Mike Puma and Frits Abell have commented, the over-arching motivation is to make the state a profit center for themselves through privatization, subsidies and contracts, just like the post-Soviet oligarchical takeover in Russia.)

A couple of supporting links from JK:

  • Blockchain in 10 minutes — my no-math primer on the tech behind cryptocurrencies
  • The Twin Insurgency — my single favorite examination of What Is Going On, addressing that final point about the plutocrats & criminals trying to hollow out and exploit state capacity

Where did the tech right come from?

Jasmine Sun 30 January 2025

Here’s a 4-part grand theory of the tech right.

“Tech disposition”

First, there is a unique “tech disposition”. David E. Broockman and Neil Malhotra surveyed 700 founders:

  1. they’re more liberal than most Dems on social issues + taxes, but very conservative on regulation + labor (even outside of tech)
  2. pro-market values trace to adolescence & cannot be explained by demographics or economics
  3. these beliefs do not resemble other economic elites

First, technology entrepreneurs are far from monolithically conservative; rather, they overwhelmingly support Democrats. This is not an artifact of our survey sample: campaign contributions from technology industry employees and ultra-wealthy technology entrepreneurs to Democrats have long exceeded those to Republicans. Although it is not surprising that individual wealthy Democrats exist, we show that the wealthy in an entire industry support the party pushing for higher taxes, deviating from the norm among the wealthy at large.

However, our findings are not so simple as that most technology entrepreneurs are liberals. Our second group of findings is that most technology entrepreneurs share a particular set of views across policy domains; that this set is conservative on many issues; and that this set is distinctive to technology entrepreneurs, being rare among other wealthy individuals, other Democrats, and other wealthy Democrats. In particular, on issues related to economic redistribution, globalization, and social issues, technology entrepreneurs are typically as or more liberal than Democratic citizens, Democratic wealthy individuals, and Democratic donors; they are also more liberal on all these issues than millionaires in the mass public. For example, 82% of technology entrepreneurs indicate support for universal healthcare even if it means raising taxes. However, technology entrepreneurs are very skeptical of government regulation. Indeed, technology entrepreneurs’ views on regulation closely resemble those of Republican donors, and are more conservative from those of other millionaires in the mass public, Democratic citizens, and wealthy Democrats. For example, 82% of technology entrepreneurs also think the government should make it easier to fire workers. These large differences persist even between technology entrepreneurs who identify as Democrats and other Democratic constituencies.

This finding is surprising in light of popular accounts that describe technology entrepreneurs as falling within categories familiar in American politics: as typically liberal, typically conservative, or typically libertarian. However, we show that most technology entrepreneurs have a pattern of views that does not fit in any of these categories, has not been seen elsewhere, and is not predicted by prior work: a majority of technology entrepreneurs explicitly describe their views as supporting redistribution of wealth but opposing regulation of business, approximately double the share as in any other group of citizens, donors, or wealthy individuals we surveyed.

Our third set of findings concerns suggestive evidence for the theoretical mechanisms we posit for why technology entrepreneurs have this unique pattern of views. Our theoretical argument, elaborated below, is that the wealthy from a particular industry may have a unique set of political views because of the distinctive set of political predispositions of the individuals who select into each industry, and further, the experiences they will tend to have working in it. Consistent with this argument, we show that technology entrepreneurs share a distinct pattern of values and predispositions that correspond with their views in related policy domains. For example, with a series of pre-registered comparisons and survey experiments, we show that it appears technology entrepreneurs’ opposition to government regulation can be traced to positive predispositions towards markets and entrepreneurship. We also cast doubt on alternative explanations for their views related to demographics, geography, and pure self-interest.

[ Sun’s thread includes screencaps from what appears to be a slightly different version of the linked paper; I have quoted the corresponding section of the paper I have access to — JK ]

Mark Andreessen’s recent [New York Times] interview with Ross Douhat is very illuminating. Andreessen describes this exact disposition: “pay taxes, support gay rights, get praised” was the implicit deal of the Clinton-Gore era:

As a result of that, the most natural thing in the world for somebody like me was, “Oh, of course, I’m a normie Democrat. I’ll be a normie Democrat forever.”

Normie Democrat is what I call the Deal, with a capital D. Nobody ever wrote this down; it was just something everybody understood: You’re me, you show up, you’re an entrepreneur, you’re a capitalist, you start a company, you grow a company, and if it works, you make a lot of money. And then the company itself is good because it’s bringing new technology to the world that makes the world a better place, but then you make a lot of money, and you give the money away. Through that, you absolve yourself of all of your sins.

Then in your obituary, it talks about what an incredible person you were, both in your business career and in your philanthropic career. And by the way, you’re a Democrat, you’re pro–gay rights, you’re pro-abortion, you’re pro all the fashionable and appropriate social causes of the time. There are no trade-offs. This is the Deal.

Then, of course, everybody knows Republicans are just knuckle-dragging racists. It was taken as given that there was going to be this great relationship. And of course, it worked so well for the Democratic Party. Clinton and Gore sailed to a re-election in ’96. And the Valley was locked in for 100 years to come to be straight-up conventional blue Democrat.

Yes, 100 percent. I would say even more than that. We all voluntarily live in California. We not only have the federal dimension of what you’re saying; we also live in these very high-tax cities — San Francisco, Palo Alto. And I think by paying higher taxes and not objecting to them, you prove you’re a good person. For that generation of enlightened centrist liberals, it was: Of course you pay higher taxes, because we’re the Democratic Party. As an agent of positive social change, of course you want to have a bigger safety net. Of course you want to fund all these programs, and you want to fund all these activist campaigns. Of course you want that.

The term “Camelot” was never used, but there was a Camelot feeling to it at the time that people must have felt in the early ’60s in the same way. Like, wow, yes, it’s all happening, and it’s all going to happen, and it’s going to be great. Yeah, they’re going to tax us, but it’s going to pay off. That was like a full-fledged part of the Deal.

Look, quite honestly, I am trying in none of this to claim moral high ground or moral sheen or anything, just to kind of take the edge off that, if that’s what I’ve come across.

Quite honestly, the tax rates didn’t really matter because when an internet company worked, it grew so fast and got so valuable that if you worked another three years, say, you’d make another 10X. Another 5 percent higher tax rate washed out in the numbers. So we weren’t forced to really think that hard about it. It just seemed like this was the formula that would result in everything working.

Social justice

Second, social justice fused with labor, nonprofits, & the state — fueling a wave of employee activism and speech / DEI / climate requirements. Structural issues demanded process solutions. Tech’s hatred of bureaucracy trumped their support for social justice.

See again the Douhat interview with Andreessen:

Andreessen

By 2013, the median newly arrived Harvard kid was like: “[expletive] it. We’re burning the system down. You are all evil. White people are evil. All men are evil. Capitalism is evil. Tech is evil.”

Douthat

But they’re working for you. These are people who are working for you.

Andreessen

Of course. So I had this moment with a senior executive, who I won’t name, but he said to me with a sense of dawning horror, “I think some of these kids are joining the company not with the intent of doing things for us but destroying us.”

They’re professional activists in their own minds, first and foremost. And it just turns out the way to exercise professional activism right now, most effectively, is to go and destroy a company from the inside. All-hands meetings started to get very contentious. Where you’d get berated at an all-hands meeting as a C.E.O., where you’d have these extremely angry employees show up and they were just completely furious about how there’s way too many white men on the management team. “Why are we a for-profit corporation? Don’t you know all the downstream horrible effects that this technology is having? We need to spend unlimited money in order to make sure that we’re not emitting any carbon.”

See comments from Paul Graham:

For the press there was money in wokeness. But they weren’t the only ones. That was one of the biggest differences between the two waves of political correctness: the first was driven almost entirely by amateurs, but the second was often driven by professionals. For some it was their whole job. By 2010 a new class of administrators had arisen whose job was basically to enforce wokeness. They played a role similar to that of the political commissars who got attached to military and industrial organizations in the USSR: they weren't directly in the flow of the organization’s work, but watched from the side to ensure that nothing improper happened in the doing of it. These new administrators could often be recognized by the word “inclusion” in their titles. Within institutions this was the preferred euphemism for wokeness; a new list of banned words, for example, would usually be called an “inclusive language guide.”

This new class of bureaucrats pursued a woke agenda as if their jobs depended on it, because they did. If you hire people to keep watch for a particular type of problem, they’re going to find it, because otherwise there’s no justification for their existence. But these bureaucrats also represented a second and possibly even greater danger. Many were involved in hiring, and when possible they tried to ensure their employers hired only people who shared their political beliefs. The most egregious cases were the new “DEI statements” that some universities started to require from faculty candidates, proving their commitment to wokeness. Some universities used these statements as the initial filter and only even considered candidates who scored high enough on them. You’re not hiring Einstein that way; imagine what you get instead.

Dem pivot

Third, Dems started to pivot away from key Clintonite ideas:

  1. neoliberal economics would be good for america
  2. digital tech would spread good liberal values

Henry Farrell calls this the collapse of both the “neoliberal” and “Palo Alto consensus”:

If that has changed, it is not simply because progressives have moved away from Silicon Valley. It is because both the neoliberal consensus and the Palo Alto consensus have collapsed, leading the political economies of Washington DC and Silicon Valley to move in very different directions.

A lot of attention has been paid to the intellectual and political collapse of neoliberalism. This really got going thanks to Trump, but it transformed the organizing ideas of the Democratic coalition too. During the Trump era, card-carrying Clintonites like Jake Sullivan became convinced that old ideas about minimally regulated markets and trade didn’t make much sense any more. Domestically, they believed that the “China shock” had hollowed out America’s industrial heartland, opening the way for Trump style populism. Reviving U.S. manufacturing and construction might be facilitated through a “Green New Deal” that would both allow the U.S. to respond effectively to climate change, and revive the physical economy. Internationally, they believed that China was a direct threat to U.S. national security, as it caught up with the U.S. on technology, industrial capacity and ability to project military force. Finally, they believed that U.S. elites had become much too supine about economic power, allowing the U.S. economy to become dominated by powerful monopolies. New approaches to antitrust were needed to restrain platform companies which had gotten out of control. Unions would be Democrats’ most crucial ally in bringing back the working class.

Now they don’t. Authoritarian governments have turned out to be quite adept for the time being, not just at suppressing dissidence but at using these technologies for their own purposes. Platforms like Facebook have been used to mobilize ethnic violence around the world, with minimal pushback from the platform’s moderation systems, which were built on the cheap and not designed to deal with a complex world where people could do horrible things in hundreds of languages. And there are now a lot of people who think that Silicon Valley platforms are bad for stability in places like the U.S. and Western Europe where democracy was supposed to be consolidated.

My surmise is that this shift in beliefs has undermined the core ideas that held the Silicon Valley coalition together. Specifically, it has broken the previously ‘obvious’ intimate relationship between innovation and liberalism.

I don’t see anyone arguing that Silicon Valley innovation is the best way of spreading liberal democratic awesome around the world any more, or for keeping it up and running at home. Instead, I see a variety of arguments for the unbridled benefits of innovation, regardless of its benefits for democratic liberalism. I see a lot of arguments that AI innovation in particular is about to propel us into an incredible new world of human possibilities, provided that it isn’t restrained by DEI, ESG and other such nonsense. Others (or the same people) argue that we need to innovate, innovate, innovate because we are caught in a technological arms race with China, and if we lose, we’re toast. Others (sotto or brutto voce; again, sometimes the same people) - contend innovation isn’t really possible in a world of democratic restraint, and we need new forms of corporate authoritarianism with a side helping of exit, to allow the kinds of advances we really need to transform the world.

The Biden admin was far more pro-unions, tech regulation & antitrust. Dems probably needed to adjust (neoliberalism isn’t popular), but this broke the tech / liberal coalition — they were seen as abandoning business to back the activist class.

Douhat

So what, in concrete terms, does that mean? What are the policies that shocked or surprised you about the Biden administration?

Andreessen

They came for business in a very broad-based way. Everything that I’m going to describe also, it turns out, I found out later, it happened in the energy industry. And I think it happened in a bunch of other industries, but the C.E.O.s felt like they couldn’t talk about it.

The problem is the raw application of the power of the administrative state, the raw application of regulation and then the raw arbitrary enforcement and promulgation of regulation. It was increasing insertion into basic staffing. Government-mandated enforcement of D.E.I. in very destructive ways. Some of these agencies have their own in-house courts, which is bananas. Also just straight-up threats and bullying.

Mark Zuckerberg just talked about this on “Rogan.” Direct phone calls from senior members of the administration. Screaming executives ordering them to do things. Just full-on “[Expletive] you. We own you. We control you. You’re going to do what we want or we’re going to destroy you.”

Then they just came after crypto. Absolutely tried to kill us.

Trump

Fourth, tech found a home in Trump’s less ideological, more deal-friendly Republican party. Traditional conservatives were a poor fit, but Trump runs the country as a cult of personality — institutions be damned. and isn’t that what “founder mode” is? From Pirate Wires:

As President Trump begins his second term, he has the support of many business leaders, especially the entrepreneurs and founders who make up the ascendant ‘tech right.’ Why did this faction emerge and rally behind the president? Some point to policy issues such as regulation, taxation, government contracting, and antitrust. Others note that self-interest and perhaps self-preservation motivate its members as much as principle or policy.

But sincere converts to the tech right share at least one thing in common: a belief in founders — change agents capable of upending stale industries — taking on Goliaths, and reaching into the future to unite it to the present. The tech right sees founders, and the qualities they embody and inspire in others, as the key to company success. Conversely, founder-less institutions don’t work, like a body without a head — or perhaps, without a soul.

With its support of Trump, the tech right is just applying this model to politics, the ultimate stale industry, and Washington, D.C., the ultimate Goliath. In Donald Trump, the tech right and the American people see a leader. More to the point, we see a founder.

Other factors

There were other contributing factors: post-2016 techlash, defense money, mean journalists, COVID, plain old opportunism in the new Trump admin. Vocal Trump support from Andreessen, Sacks, Musk ignited a preference cascade.

But I maintain that SV elites’ deepest commitment is not right or left, but to unfettered innovation (& the wealth / growth that results). It’s the spirit of “get out of my way & let me cook” — they’ll align with whichever party makes that possible.

My overall thought on the sort of cultural versus material debate is like, the left liberal camp still underrates the cultural stuff. I think you're right that considering the counterfactual, would Zuckerberg be being like, “Meta is too feminine now” if Kamala won — obviously no. At the same time, when I read PG’s essay, I was like, oh, this is a complaint about bureaucracy as much as it’s a complaint about politics.

It's this cultural thing of builders in, prigs out. There are all these memes like “high agency” or “founder mode” or “live players” or “you can just do things.” My friend Clara, who edits Asterisk Magazine, was telling me about some conference where someone called it “Robert Moses libertarianism.” What does that even mean? And I think this is incoherent, except for that Moses was really going founder mode. He was a high agency guy. He’s very effective, right? And there is some disposition where tech, because it is the industry of innovators and disruptors, is just like: Anybody who’s super effective and hacks the system, whether it's from the inside or the outside, whether it's in tech or in politics, they get that respect.

That relates to why I see progress as like the primary coalition rather than like left or right. Or as Lonsdale calls it, the “builder class.” There is economic self-interest, obviously, but it’s also an aesthetic preference.

Another consequence is that this is causing real rifts between maga right and tech right — most notably over H1-B, but IMO that’s a sign of more fights to come.

The more traditional conservatives — not Hanania, that is — go on to express skepticism about the “Tech Right”’s lack of a moral compass (of the Christian sort); its willingness to endure short-term social harms for long-term economic gains; and its overall bias toward disruption — whatever chaos may come. They’re suspicious of tech’s talk about “human capital” and its flirtations with fascism. The essays read like a warning to fellow reactionaries: Can the tech titans be trusted to preserve American values? Or are they riding the Trump train on the way to a robot-ruled transhumanist utopia? Take slogans like Accelerate or die! — there’s nothing “conservative” about it.