Showing posts with label design. Show all posts
Showing posts with label design. Show all posts

25 August 2025

A novel system for proportional representation with ranked ballots


  
A faux ballot. At the top, it says “List the candidates you support. Rank them in order, with those you prefer first.” There are six numbered boxes below. The first three are filled with handwriting: “Furlong”, “Cole”, “Armstrong”

Restless about the gawdawful American electoral system, thinking about an old proposal for reforming the Senate led me to this idea. It seems so simple and elegant to me that I cannot understand why I cannot find anyone else proposing anything like it … or debunking its flaws.

Knowing the tragic reality that Arrow’s Theorem makes a perfect electoral system impossible, I worry about what gotchas I might have missed. Many smart people have called for proportional representation in the US, but the kinds of mechanisms I have been able to find differ structurally from this proposal.

My amateur perusal of the standard ways of analyzing voting methods has not helped — they don’t address the way I handle proportionality, and I cannot work out the math alone. I write this partly in hope that a real expert can set me straight.

The essence

Most systems of proportional representation assume that each seat in the legislature exercises equal strength, so they may give a party a proportion of seats in the legislature corresponding as well as possible to the proportion of voters who cast a ballot for that party, giving a seat to the party’s most popular candidate, second most popular, and so on.

My weighted seats proposal invests different legislative representatives with different strength, proportionate to voters’ support for that rep. Big voter support might give a rep a seat with a strength of 1000, which would outweigh the combined efforts of a pair of less popular reps holding seats with a strength of only 400 each.

To elect a legislature with N seats:

  1. Citizens cast ballots listing candidates in rank order of the voter’s preference. A ballot may list as few or as many candidates as the voter wishes.
  2. An initial seating tally of the ballots identifies the top N candidates. They get seated as representatives.
  3. A second strength tally of the ballots determines the power of each rep’s seat. Each citizen’s ballot delivers the strength of its vote to the seated rep ranked highest on that ballot. Reps’ power in the legislature equals the the votes the rep received in the strength tally.

Example

There are 7 candidates for 5 city council seats:

  • Armstrong
  • Bartlett
  • Cole
  • Davenport
  • Eagle
  • Furlong
  • Gordon

Jane, a voter who liked upstart candidate Furlong, cast this ballot:

  1. Furlong
  2. Cole
  3. Armstrong

Though Jane’s ballot supported Furlong, not enough other voters agreed. Furlong failed the seating tally, which produced a city council comprised of:

  • Armstrong
  • Bartlett
  • Cole
  • Davenport
  • Eagle

In the strength tally, Jane’s ballot contributes its vote to the strength of her second choice, Cole. Tallying all 200k ballots produces these seat strengths:

  • Armstrong — 65k
  • Bartlett — 50k
  • Cole — 45k (including 1 from Jane!)
  • Davenport — 30k
  • Eagle — 10k

This creates a few cases where a minority of strong reps can out-vote a majority of reps who are weak. Armstrong & Cole (65k + 45k = 110k) voting together out-vote Bartlett, Davenport, and Eagle combined (50k + 30k + 10k = 90k).

This should appeal to voters

Intuitive, honest voting

This system produces little need & advantage for voters to vote strategically. They just name the candidates they like, and rank their preferences honestly.

Wide candidate choice

Even when incumbency confers strong advantages, voters may choose from at least as many options as there are seats to fill, so they probably need to make compromises on less positions to pick a candidate to support.

A transparent proportionality mechanism

Unlike in complex proportional systems which cascade ballots’ votes to lower-ranked candidates, voters always have their vote strengthen the successful candidate they liked best.

Practically nobody feels they had a “wasted” vote

If a voter’s ideal candidate wins a seat by a big margin, it was still worth them taking time to vote, because their ballot makes that rep a little bit stronger.

If their ideal candidate does not win a seat, their vote still counts, lending strength to the seated rep whom they ranked highest.

Determining the seating tally

The overview above hand-waves identifying how we determine the candidates seated in Step 2. How should we define the “top” N candidates?

I’m not sure about the ideal method. I suspect that a range of methods would deliver fair and sensible results — and would feel both clear and fair to citizens. And this is the space with an opportunity to “tune” the system to prevent perverse outcomes and get characteristics we prefer — stronger or weaker tendency to support moderation, incumbency, et cetera.

Broad approval?

A simple method would be to tally every candidate appearance on every ballot as a vote for that candidate, much like approval voting. The candidates with the highest N tallies would get seated.

This can theoretically produce odd results. Imagine an election for a 5-seat legislature in which nobody ranked Candidate X in their top 5 … but everyone listed them on their ballot somewhere, so they get a seat. It is wildly improbable, but possible, that this could produce a rep with a seat with zero strength, because every ballot ranked another seated candidate higher.

It does seem likely that this system will produce occasional reps who have a very weak vote because many voters accept them but few prefer them. But a few reps with an equal voice but a weak vote may not be such a bad thing.

Top rank?

Another simple method would be to tally each ballot as a vote just for its top-ranked candidate. The N candidates ranked #1 most often would get seated.

This could get weird in a highly fragmented race. A candidate ranked #2 on every ballot would not get a seat, and it is reasonable to think that they should. Imagine an election for a 5-seat legislature in which 20 candidates are all ranked #1 on 4% of ballots … with 5 candidates ranked #1 on 5% of ballots. Those last 5 candidates would get seated despite not being categorically more popular. But again, these kinds of perverse results seem improbable with real ballots.

A blend?

We could tally a vote for only the three highest ranked candidates on each ballot. Or the four highest, or whatever. A mass of low-ranked support for a candidate could not win them a seat.

We could tallying a vote for every listed candidate, then tally an extra vote for each ballot’s #1 pick, so that between …

  • Armstrong — 100 ballots as #1, 100 ballots ranked lower
  • Bartlett — no ballots as #1, 250 ballots ranked lower

… Armstrong would get a seat with 2x100 + 100 = 300 votes over Bartlett’s 2x0 + 250 = 250 votes.

Something more sophisticated?

A lot of work has been done on various sophisticated positional voting rules which should inform yet more options. Condorcet methods have a lot of advantages, but they present implementation challenges and are complex enough that ordinary voters will find them opaque, so I hesitate to embrace them in this context, since it is not enough for the system to be fair, it also needs to support democratic consent by feeling fair.

Intended advantages

Undercuts gerrymandering & other districting challenges

So long as a district sends multiple reps, voters in the district can expect reasonably fair representation whatever the size & shape of their district, since each voter has their vote contribute equally to the strength of their preferred rep no matter what district they inhabit. Smaller districts produce weaker reps; bigger districts produce stronger reps, but a voter’s ballot delivers the same one-vote power of representation in either case.

Better matching of reps to voter preferences

Rather than having to choose from a few (or in the US, just two) political parties whose platforms may not map well to their preferences, a voter may pick a specific candidate whose program & priorities matches theirs well and expect that candidate to have a shot at a seat in the legislature. In many ways this should work as if there are as many different parties as there are reps in the legislature, which further suggests …

Complex issue-oriented coalitions

Reps would have more opportunities to assemble ad-hoc coalitions around specific issues. A “libertarian” rep might vote together with a “progressive” rep to decriminalize soft recreational drugs, then vote together with a “pro-business” rep to de-regulate an industry.

Less incumbency bias?

This system should do even better than many other ranked-ballot systems like IRV in allowing voters to support challenger candidates without worrying about spoiler effects. Incumbents will still tend to do will if they maintain popular support, and …

Democratic accountability reflected in reps’ shifting strength

Each election will redistribute power. Reps with growing popular support get stronger; reps with waning popular support get weaker. More frequent elections make reps more responsive to popular will; less frequent elections protect reps from popular whims.

Enabling complex unicameralism

This system enables a unicameral legislature with different classes of representatives voting together. I imagine a combination of a few very strong nationally-elected representatives together with a large number of individually weak locally-elected representatives as part of a a vision for a radically new US Constitution ….

Unicode faves

I keep these in a plaintext file on my computer so I can get at them easily:



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• ⁃ ◻︎ ◼︎ ▫︎ ▪︎ ◇ ◆ ⚪︎ ⚫︎ ○ ● ◉ ⬜︎ ⬛︎
‹ › « » ⟦ ⟧ ❝ ❞ ❛ ❜ 
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⚐ ⚑ ☆ ★ ⭐︎ ✪ ♡ ♥︎ ▷ ▶︎ ▲ △ 
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½ ⅟ ⁄ 
⅓ ⅔ ¼ ¾ ⅕ ⅖ ⅗ ⅘ ⅙ ⅚ ⅛ ⅜ ⅝ ⅞ ⅒
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◁ ▷ ▽ △ ◀︎ ▶︎ ▼ ▲
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⚠︎ ☢︎ ☣︎ ♻︎ ☭ ♬ ⚛︎ ✈︎ ⤨ © ® ™ ⚙︎ 
☉ ☾ ☿ ♀︎ ⨂ ♂︎ ♃ ♄ ♅ ⛢ ♆ ♇
♈︎ ♉︎ ♊︎ ♋︎ ♌︎ ♍︎ ♎︎ ♏︎ ♐︎ ♑︎ ♒︎ ♓︎
☤ ✝︎ ✡︎ ☪︎ ☯︎ ☸︎ ☫ ☬ ⚕︎ ☮︎  ☥
  

ื™ื”ื•ื”‎ ‎
| ื‎ ื‘‎ ื’‎ ื“‎ ื”‎ ื•‎ ื–‎ ื—‎ ื˜‎ ื™‎ ื›‎ ืš‎ ืœ‎ ืž‎ ื‎ ื ‎ ืŸ‎ ืก‎ ืข‎ ืค‎ ืฃ‎ ืฆ‎ ืฅ‎ ืง‎ ืจ‎ ืฉ‎ ืช‎  •  ๏ญ‎ 
ฮ‘ ฮฑ ฮ’ ฮฒ ฮ“ ฮณ ฮ” ฮด ฮ• ฮต ฮ– ฮถ ฮ— ฮท ฮ˜ ฮธ ฮ™ ฮน ฮš ฮบ ฮ› ฮป ฮœ ฮผ ฮ ฮฝ ฮž ฮพ	
ฮŸ ฮฟ ฮ  ฯ€ ฮก ฯ ฮฃ ฯƒ ฯ‚ ฮค ฯ„ ฮฅ ฯ… ฮฆ ฯ† ฮง ฯ‡ ฮจ ฯˆ ฮฉ ฯ‰ 

๐’‚ ๐’ƒ ๐’„ ๐’… ๐’† ๐’‡ ๐’ˆ ๐’‰ ๐’Š ๐’‹ ๐’Œ ๐’ ๐’Ž ๐’ ๐’ ๐’‘ ๐’’ ๐’“ ๐’” ๐’• ๐’– ๐’— ๐’˜ ๐’™ ๐’š ๐’› 
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❶ ❷ ❸ ❹ ❺ ❻ ❼ ❽ ❾

๐Ÿ”ด๐ŸŸ ๐ŸŸก๐ŸŸข๐Ÿ”ต๐ŸŸฃ⚪⚫๐ŸŸค
๐ŸŸฅ๐ŸŸง๐ŸŸจ๐ŸŸฉ๐ŸŸฆ๐ŸŸช⬜⬛๐ŸŸซ
❤️๐Ÿงก๐Ÿ’›๐Ÿ’š๐Ÿ’™๐Ÿ’œ๐Ÿค๐Ÿ–ค๐ŸคŽ
	

08 August 2025

Fonts

I need to start indexing typefaces I like, if only so I can find them again. This is just a start.

Indices

Type foundry directory
Extensive!
Linotype Pilgrim’s list
Well-curated
Blambot
A foundry making faces for stuff like comics with other applications
Fonts for wireframing
A short index doing what it says on the tin
Free Font Alternatives
A useful list of free fonts to do the job of some spendy classics

Faces

Big free families

Deja Vu
A huge family
Noto
Created by the Google Fonts team
IBM Plex
Has just a hint of the Future Of The Past

Workhorses

Verdana
The sans serif which is always there for you
Georgia
The serif’d face for use on screens which is always there for you
Monaspace
A versatile & nifty family of monospaced fonts
Input
A sophisticated family of fonts for coding
Futura
The perennial face for people who have graduated from Helvetica
Volkhorn
A “bread-and-butter” serif’d face

For sketches

I use these in UX design wireframes to underline that they are sketchy

Squiggles instead of text

Redacted (Google Fonts)
Turns text into squiggles or blocks suggestive of words; includes a range of weights
Fillr
Turns text into rougher squiggles suggestive of words
Flow Rounded
Turns text into plain strokes
BLOKK
Turns text into chunky blocks

Handwriting-ish faces suggesting sketchiness

Pulp Fiction
A serif’d face for comics which has both bold and italics for when one needs to show examples of real copy while still hinting at sketchiness
Winky Sans
A slightly whimsical face which implies a neat but unfinished sketch
Comic Neue
A less janky descendent of Comic Sans, for that “do not take this seriously” feeling

Interesting

Doves Type
A facsimile of an elegant early 20th century face. Evidently they fished the original typeset out of the Thames.
Bureausign
A nifty wayfinding font influenced by science fiction movies.
Piazzolla
A serif face with a lot of weights and a distinctive chunky character
Atkinson hyperlegible next
A sans serif face designed for accessibility
Bastaleur
A fancy pseudo-arcane face I like to use in game materials.
Gentium
A serif’d face with just a bit of character
Sylexiad
An eccentric face designed to support dyslexics
Skribblugh
A deliberately janky-unto-scary face which is surprisingly readable which I used for character sheets for a TTRPG about insomniacs
Noteworthy
A very legible face which resembles handrwriting
Science Gothic
A blocky face evocative of science fiction movies
Analog Digits
A family of numerals that look like segmented displays and nixie tubes

Font tools for games

Dicier
Useful icons
Prompt font
Useful icons
Hexpaper pro
An easy way to make hex grids
Raygun Rockets
An easy way to draw rayguns & rockets
Aetherships
An easy way to draw zepplins and steampunk spaceships
Fate Core
A few key glyphs for the TTRPG

Mac tools

PopChar
A tool for handling fonts’ special characters
Typeface
A tool for surveying & organizing one’s fonts; included with a SetApp subscription, which I recommend to all Mac users

About type

Severance’s evil type design
An article about the show’s production design with an interesting word about how no, that is not Helvetica.
Type.Method
A game-like tool for exercising kerning skill
Keming Revisited
A fun collection of commentaries & resources about the joke term “keming” to refer to bad kerning.

14 May 2025

The state of UX design, and a job I did not take

An old colleague reminded me of a story about a job I did not take. It’s partly a story about the state of user experience design circa 2010, partly a story about the state of user experience design circa 2025, and partly a story about professionalism & org development.

I interviewed to become the First UXD at midsize company making niche consumer electronics which had superb industrial design capacity but did not have a UX design practice at all, and realized they needed it. It was a good org in a lot of ways. I liked the people I met. They did not understand UXD, but they mostly knew that they didn’t know.

They gave me an offer. It was Grown-Up Money, but the number was weak, rolling back the odometer on my career by a decade.

I told the hiring manager that I would not take the offer. He was unsurprised, had warned HR that the salary was inadequate, and was confident that he could get them to improve it significantly.

I said:

Look, more money in itself won’t change my mind. That number reflects a different conception of what this job is than I thought we understood. That number is low for someone to do UX design, and you need someone to pioneer a UXD practice.

He replied:

You’re right. We don’t have a commitment to go heavy on UX design. We are adding a UX designer to the team as an experiment. If that works out, we want to build a practice.

I said:

That sounds reasonable. And it is doomed to fail.

If you don’t address how UX design connects to your design & development process, you won’t get much leverage even from a great designer. With the pay you offered me, people in the org will smell on the person in that role that they are not worth listening to about the process & organizational elements of turning good UX design into actual products with good UX.

It is even worse if the person in this job manages to drive some product improvements in spite of that problem. The org will learn the wrong lesson. They will expect modest gains without org change. They will never invest organizational juice into supporting UXD properly.

This position is set up for failure. I don’t want that job, even if you pay me more to do it.

The hiring manager said:

That is very clarifying. I only half-understood that problem. I know I cannot address it from where I am sitting in the org.

I said:

You really need someone who has made it happen before, but there are all of a dozen people in the world with that on their rรฉsumรฉ, and you’ll need a crowbar to pry them loose from where they work now, so the best move available to you is to roll the dice on investing a lot of trust in someone like me, who does not have that experience but has the skills and a fundamental understanding of the process & org challenges. But it is obvious why it is so hard to make a commitment to that. You need executive air support.

Because I like what y’all do and want to see y’all build a real UXD practice even if I don’t get to be the one to do it, I’ll offer you a bit of free consulting time. Put me in front of someone who can drive org change, and I will lay it out the case for them, like I just did for you.

The hiring manager was enthusiastic about that being the Right Thing. They said that they would communicate my offer, but predicted that leadership would not bite. I was unsurprised that I never heard from them again. I needed a new job, but I felt relieved that I had dodged a bullet.

In the 2010s, we saw a lot of orgs became enthusiastic about the importance of user experience. They hired a bunch of designers, then just sprinkled them into their organizations without changing any of the structures or processes.

My prophecy for that organization I interviewed with happened across the industry. User experience design “didn’t work”, as in the famous parable we tried baseball and it didn’t work.

The fanatical proponents of baseball tell us that it is a very exciting game, fun to play and fun to watch. They are clearly either stupid or evil or both, because we tried baseball and it didn’t work.

First of all, the requirements for the game are stupid: it does not scale. They say you need at least nine players on a side. That’s stupidly inefficient. The minimum number of players is clearly four: three men on and one batting. That’s how we played: four people on a side.

With only four players, we didn’t need all those bases ⋯

[⋯]

The thing that finally condemns the entire “baseball” idea, however is this: even with all these improvements, the game is no fun at all.

We tried baseball, and it didn’t work.

Frankly, the UX design profession bears significant responsibility as well. We have not delivered clarity about what we need or even what we do, because we lack it as a professional community. Too many of us were insufficiently skilled. Too many of us accepted doomed positions because we felt we had to.

Now we have a lot of capable UX designers leaving the profession or having trouble staying in it … and a lot of crappy products & services. A tragedy.

30 March 2025

Using tokens to clarify the Fate point economy

I have been tinkering with a rules summary sheet for the Fate tabletop roleplaying game for a long time. A sharp-eyed forum commentator caught my earlier version describing the award of Fate points a little misleadingly, which made something belatedly fall into a place in my understanding of how invoking & compelling aspects fits into the Fate point economy.

I now want to try a different practice for tracking Fate points at the table, using three different counters. I like those little colorful glass “gaming stone” beads.



  A tube of glass beads

Use three different colored tokens. In play, all tokens come from and go to the infinite bank.

During a scene

White — Fate points

−1 spent for …
  • declaring a story detail
  • invoking any aspect
  • refusing a compel against a character aspect
  • PCs proposing a compel against another character (with the GM’s approval)
  • powering a stunt which requires Fate points
  • borrowing a stunt one lacks to use a skill in an extraordinary way
+ 1 received when …
  • accepting compels on character aspects
  • suffering complications from situation aspects

Black — hostile invocations tally

+1 received when …
  • a character has their own aspect
    invoked against them

Red — reward for conceding a conflict

+1 received when …
  • any character takes a condition from an attack

Outside a scene

Starting a scenario

Players get White tokens — whichever is greater:
  • their character’s Refresh
  • Fate points carried over from the previous scenario

Starting a scene

  • +1 White / PC to the GM
  • +1 Red to each player & the GM

Ending a scene

  • if a PC left the scene any way other than conceding a conflict, the player discards their Reds
  • if any GM character did not leave the scene by conceding a conflict, the GM discards all of their Reds
  • exchange Blacks & remaining Reds ➞ Whites

The logic

Blacks prevent confusion about Fate points from invokes which one “has” but cannot use during the current scene.

Reds imply that conceding a conflict is the normal way to end a scene, supporting the defeat-defeat-comeback pattern of fiction which Fate tries to emulate. Having them on the table should inspire loss aversion; if one ends the scene another way, it feels like sacrificing Fate points which one already has waiting.

Reds also suggest strategically accepting a condition. Taking a mild condition from an attack — even if one still has stress boxes free — pays off with a Fate point which will only require a pretty easy skill check (plus fun team bonding roleplay!) to clear.

Seeing Blacks & Reds piling up should tempt players to get on to the next scene to cash them in, encouraging fast-paced play.

05 December 2024

Why health insurers refuse to say what they cover

I do research-driven system design. In the early 2000s I did a project for a major US health insurance company who wanted to know what they could do to make their plan members hate them less.

So I interviewed dozens of people with “good” employer-sponsored health insurance about their encounters with their insurers. I handed over a big thick research report and talked the executives through the highlights, the way you do.

One of the key findings was “People Are Frustrated That They Cannot See The Costs Of Their Choices”.

A high-ranking executive vigorously objected. “The last thing people care about with their health is what it costs!”

(It would later emerge that we had a miscommunication. He thought I was saying that patients were concerned with what it would cost their insurer, rather than themselves. That this seemed to him like the obvious reading of what I meant is itself a lesson in where his head was.)

So I said, “I’ll tell you a particular story from the research.”


One couple we spoke to were prosperous and had good insurance. They did not need the honorarium we paid them for participating in the study, but they were eager to talk to us because they wanted to tell their story.

They had a kid who was born deaf and was a good candidate for a cochlear implant. It’s a procedure that costs about $10,000 if you pay out of pocket. In the kid’s case it had about a 50/50 chance of working.

Their insurance paid for it. It didn’t work. But for the kid’s condition, it was possible to just try it again; they could in principle attempt the proceedure repeatedly with the same odds each time. They were wary of pressing against bad luck and ending up putting their kid through surgery several times, but taking a second bite at the apple seemed like it might be sensible. As they were thinking about it, they called an agent at their insurer to see if they would cover another attempt.

The same logic which had them hesitant to put their child through repeated surgeries had them sympathetic to the possibility that the insurer would refuse; it seemed fair to them that their insurance policy would have to draw a line somewhere. And they were close to deciding that they would just pay for it out of pocket if the insurer said No.

Their insurance rep confidently told them that a second surgery would be covered the same as the first. The couple asked if there was a pre-authorization they could get in writing, but the agent said that it did not work that way. But not to worry, it was definitely covered!

Of course you can guess what happened.

They had to pay a big bill, which they would have done with a smile had the insurer just not jerked them around. As a result of this misadventure, they became obsessed with hating that insurer, and talked about how they look for every possible opportunity to tell their story, which is how they wound up talking to me.


The executive looked sincerely mortified by this example. He said, “That’s horrible. Who was their insurer?”

And I smiled. Because I got to tell him, “Oh, that was you. Your company screwed those people.”

(When I tell this story, people usually ask me who the client was. Having already bent my NDA enough, I will not reveal it. Plus — and this is important — it does not matter. This is characteristic of how all US insurers operate.)

“Understand,” I added, “we talked to people with much worse experiences than that. We talked to people hit with financial impacts they could not afford. We talked to people whose insurers’ decisions had awful, lasting medical impacts.”


In the course of that project — since I was looking at systems design — I learned why this happens. It does not come from trying to screw insurance plan members, it comes from trying to screw doctors and hospitals.

Insurance companies write deliberately obfuscated contracts with healthcare providers: Rule 122.7.14b combined with Rule 37.4.9 combined with Rule 71.16a/7 mean that the doctor only gets paid for part of Proceedure X. This creates such complexity in evaluating how a healthcare provider will get reรฏmbursed for what they do, so many dependencies on super-specific particulars, that the insurer cannot run the hypothetical on what their own systems will do! The machine simply cannnot produce an answer.

That does not make this inability to make commitments innocent. These are design choices. Insurers have smart people working hard all day every day to figure out inventive ways to screw doctors and hospitals. They prioritize doing that over enabling patients to make clear decisions.


I think of this whenever defenders of the private insurance system in the US talk about stuff like the virtues of copayments, the small fees patients make when getting a proceedure or medication which their insurer does cover. This is meant to create incentives which prevent patients from making frivolous use of medical services, as part of giving patients “skin in the game” in managing costs, in making trade-offs about when it matters to them to get resource-intensive care. But even if that design reasoning made sense — and I do not think it does — the capriciousness of costs which the insured actually experience makes it entirely useless.

There is no fixing this class of problem in private insurance. It is inherent in the incentives insurers face.

This is one among many reasons why there is no fixing private insurance. I advocate for single payer public healthcare — best known by the slogan “Medicare For All” — because there is no legitimate argument against it.

11 June 2024

Good user experience design

It is hard to name the good-ness of good UXD.

Intuitive?

People outside the field often say that they want a user experience which is “intuitive”. I have talked before about how under-considered that word is.

When people say they want a system to be “intuitive,” they typically think they mean that users should immediately understand how a system works when they encounter it. But you cannot really do that with many systems … not even with most systems people talk about when you ask them for an example of something “intuitive.”

Consider the mouse-and-cursor. Most of us have forgotten the first time we encountered it, and thus forgotten how unintuitive we found it the first time we used it. A little box on a string with a button or three on top? If you have just arrived from the 23rd century, you might pick it up and try talking to it. But with ten seconds of demonstration you understand it completely and have some sophisticated applications of it immediately available to you, and even if you didn’t see a mouse again for the next ten years you would still remember how it worked.

There you have what people really mean by “intuitive:” easy to explain, powerful in its implications, impossible to forget. You get that through systems that possess a clear, coherent internal logic that feels natural and obvious. Of course, it can take hard work to figure out those “natural and obvious” behaviors; we interaction designers call that work “interaction design.”

So that is not quite enough.

Delightful?

Cyd Harrell has a good critique of facile uses of “delight”:

delight [is] an ambiguous word, referring to either a level of pleasing someone (a high level) or a way of pleasing them (charm, surprise, in any case a very conscious pleasure). adopting a high level of pleasing users as a goal is good - mostly - but when designers, through some kind of linguistic slippage, adopt the “way” sense of delight to inappropriate contexts, it’s like following the script of a romance when trying to get to know a colleague — awkward. that said, lots of designers meant the level.

in recent years I’ve come to understand that the level can also be a problem in a more subtle way. if delight is a conscious pleasure - the spirit stirred somehow - multiple “experiences” or products or whatever trying to stir our spirit can be taxing. it’s not always additive & if it happens to miss — if it’s the wrong way of pleasure for the context, or the experience is just trying to make sure that it visibly, maybe measurably, exerted a high level of pleasure on you - it asks for attention it may not deserve. collectively, it can be a burden.

sometimes, especially with a longterm relationship like, well, a longterm relationship or like belonging in an institution, what we really need is the background level of assumption that we matter & are cared for, & then the occasional sparks in a special smile, the bed, a voting booth if you’re talking about stirring the civic spirit (I have a story I tell about being overwhelmed with institutional belonging in a library) - those become reinforcing & sustaining.

spoiler: those are harder to design for. & they can’t be accomplished entirely through the tools of design; so that’s where I think delight is tempting - it is suited to our toolset, & we can push it towards measurable. but in doing so (sometimes) we can get on the wrong foot.

Giles Colborne has a rap about how designers tend to justify gimmicky, interesting design as pursuing “delight”, but when one asks people about delightful experiences, they often describe effortless resolution of anxiety, a good UX design goal.

Boring?

Ryan Bigge’s In Defence of Boring UX:

“Only when a product is functional, reliable, and usable can users appreciate the delightful, pleasurable, or enjoyable aspects of the experience,” notes Fessenden. In other words, boring underpins delight — and sometimes boring is delightful.

Cap Watkins praises The Boring Designer:

Maybe it’s born out of seeing apps choose flash over function, or trying to understand just one too many indecipherable icons-as-buttons. Whatever the case, here's an ode to the boring designers among us. The designers who …

  • Choose obvious over clever every time.
  • Rarely stand their ground.
  • Are Practical.
  • Value Laziness.
  • Lead the team.

Delivering power & pleasure?

I used to talk about “systems which deliver power and pleasure to the people who use them”. In 1997, when I was at Alan Cooper’s studio — then the only shop exclusively dedicated to what we now call “UX design”, we had a lively conversation about our mission statement coรฏnciding with us rebranding from “Cooper Software” to “Cooper Interaction Design”. Alan Cooper had a draft mission statement which was pretty good, but I was uneasy with its allusion to “designing software which is easy to use”. We were simplicity radicals then (and still), but we also worked on a lot of desktop apps which were necessarily complex.

I proposed “systems which deliver power and pleasure to the people who use them”, which I look back on with a mix of pride and unease. It has some distinct advantages as a way to articulate good UX design, and for a while the Cooper studio used it a lot in our materials. (It didn’t work as branding, though. Google search results were … worrisome.)

These days we rightly criticize the concept of “user-centered design” — we need a more global and ethical ground than that implies. (Though fergawdsake in the world we have we need more designers who are at least advocates for users.) But at that time that turn of phrase was a clarifying place to stand, and it still grounds much of how I think about UX design solutions:

Deliver

A lot of tools promise things which they do not deliver, either because they simply do not deliver the right function, or because they are too clumsy in their execution. A feature one does not use just acts as clutter, in the way.

Power

UXD should aspire to make things that are effective and make make people effective; a simple tool can be powerful if it is the right tool, and a tool should not shy from sophistication in the right context.

Pleasure

We need to talk about well-crafted design. This can mean fun, delight, or excitement, yes. But most often UX design should offer the subtler joy of an unobtrusively graceful tool.

07 February 2024

Decision-based evidence-making


  
  An arbitrary graph showing “growth” up and to the right

Once upon a time, I had an epistemological crisis at my day job.

When I was working at a consulting studio I did a lot of presenting with PowerPoint decks, communicating research and design work. I devote a lot of effort to my presentation materials and feel pride when clients admire them presenting complex ideas clearly. Occasionally this has resulted in clients asking for my help in assembling PowerPoint decks of their own, which is usually fun, easy, good for the studio’s client relationships, and makes the world a tiny bit better by spreading wisdom about making non-gawdawful presentations.

Several years ago, a client in a large organization asked for me to take a day or three to help their colleague from another part of their company to put together a presentation about some research they had done. This person came my office with a huge stack of binders full of research reports. “We need to figure out how to explain to people in Department X how this research shows that we need to pursue Policy Y.”

“Great!” I said. “Just walk me through it. Tell me in your words how you came to your conclusions, we will talk until I have a good grasp of it, then we can figure out together how best to explain it clearly, succinctly, and convincingly.”

This surprised them. “I don’t understand.”

“What don’t you understand?”

“Why are you asking me how this research shows that we should do Policy Y?”

Huh? “Is this not your research?”

“Well, some of this research we did ourselves, some of it we paid for. But what does that have to do with anything?”

I shrugged. “I’m sorry, I did not want to get sidetracked on how the research was done. I was asking because I want to understand what from the research lead you to choose Policy Y.”

“I don’t understand. Policy Y is my team’s plan.”

“Yes, how did you decide that?”

“What does that have to do with the presentation?”

They were visibly exasperated. I am sure I failed at concealing my irritation at how weird this conversation was.

Obviously I am abbreviating a longer, twistier conversation in which we were talking past each other. After a few rounds, I did the Shelf Sweep with my hands and tried to take a conceptual step back.

“Okay. You did the research. You looked at it, you thought about it. Then you realized that you needed to do Policy Y. What in the research pointed you there?”

“That’s what I want you to figure out for the presentation!”

I tried another step back. “I think the folks who set this up confused me about what you need. Let’s start over. Can you tell me what you need me to do?”

“I need you to find the data in this research which shows that we need to do Policy Y, so I can convince Department X to do it.”

Oh.

“Now I think I am following you. You have already decided to do Policy Y, for your own reasons. You want to persuade the people in Department X. So you want to sift through all this research to find things which support Policy Y.”

“Yes!”

“I apologize for the misunderstanding.”

“It’s okay. Let’s get to it!”

“Um. No. We have had a misunderstanding about what I do for a living.”

“Aren’t you a research consultant?”

“Yes, I am, among other things.”

“So what is the misunderstanding?”

“I do research, and analyze it, to help clients make good decisions about products and services.”

“Right. I need help analyzing this research.”

“You are neither asking me to analyze that research nor to communicate an analysis of it.”

“Huh? I am asking for an analysis of how this research supports Policy Y.”

“Analysis is looking at research and figuring out what policies and solutions it suggests. That is a different thing.”

“I don’t get the difference.”

“Yes, I see that. I am very sorry to have wasted your time. Obviously our studio will not bill you for this meeting, because of the misunderstanding.”

Again, this was a much longer and clumsier conversation than I could hope to reproduce. They were not just astonished that I considered myself professionally obligated to refuse this work, they could not see what my objection was. Wasn’t this what researchers did? Wasn’t this what consultants did? My presumption that one should examine evidence before reaching a conclusion, rather than using it to support a conclusion, was not even an idea they could understand well enough to reject.

I am not against trying to be persuasive. That is a necessary art. But I was shaken they could not conceive of any use of information other than persuasion.

I have reluctantly come to believe that there are more people like them than there are like me.




This post was born as a Twitter thread, and over time I threaded related observations from others.

In tech / design / business

Maia Bittner sums up my story succinctly:

I have finally learned how “data-driven decision-making” works in business:
  • First you make whatever decision you want to about your product or business.
  • Then you go spelunking to cherry-pick data to back up it being a good decision! ๐Ÿ’

Nils Gilman describes the kind of consultant that client of mine thought they were hiring:

Consultancies claim that what they’re providing is access to “best practices” — which is sometimes true. But much of the time what they’re actually providing is CYA for unpopular decisions and/or ammo for one side in an intra-firm political struggle.

The Economist | Do McKinsey and other consultants do anything useful?
Though hated, they often provide a valuable service to the economy

Pavel A. Samsonov feels misunderstood like I did:

Was just introduced by a colleague as someone who will “validate business requirements” and a chill ran up my spine.

Samsonov describes the underlying politics well:

No amount of research will make stakeholders as confident as following all of their biases.

Sell stakeholders on the idea of doing research in the first place, or they will demand impossible bulletproof evidence for anything that doesn’t align with their existing assumptions.

In one article, Jared Spool discusses how you must always ask executives for what they expect to happen before user testing. Otherwise they will pretend like they knew the outcome ahead of time, and it will not sway their thinking. This is an analogous concept.

If you produce results without creating the expectation that the stakeholder’s assumptions may have been wrong, they will find a way to reconcile the results with their existing mental model. Often that just means being dismissed: “you asked the wrong people/questions”.

As Alan Cooper says - user experience is a power struggle. In low-maturity product orgs, stakeholders gather political power through being Experts who are Always Right. Realigning attitudes away from assumptions is a political game, not a delivery one.

These orgs create a vicious cycle between assumption-driven design and brittle development. The cost of being wrong is massive (politically and financially). Rather than reducing the cost of being wrong, stakeholders find it safer to obfuscate how “right” is determined.

Introducing the idea of experimentation - controlled, rapid failing - is anathema to this environment. So you have to sell the whole thing at once: small, quick, cheap tests aimed at learning rather than “winning”. The only real failure is if we didn't learn anything new.

This is very scary because it requires stakeholders to commit to a real “definition of good” that’s not just “the team delivered the requirements.” They have to get buy-in for goals and hypotheses (you might recognize these as OKRs) and that takes work!

But more importantly, they give up control. They are no longer the Knower and Decider (instead, research determines the way forward). They no longer set the team's outputs (the team determines their own experiments). But they are still on the hook for results.

This is what you’re struggling against: convincing stakeholders to relinquish absolute power. If they do not, then regardless of the title on your business cards you are stuck as a feature designer or usability tester, not a UX designer or user researcher.

Samsonov also talks about the organizational dynamics these deceits produce in the kinds of product development I do:

Product teams fall apart when they start lying to themselves. This breaks the core mechanism:

  1. Define problem
  2. Prioritize problem
  3. Define appropriately scaled solution for problem

Teams that lie to themselves can’t do 2, and therefore can’t do 3.

When teams lie to themselves, it usually looks something like this:

  • ๐Ÿง‘๐Ÿป: It would be cool and innovative to build Widget
  • ๐Ÿง”๐Ÿป: I’ll create the user story! “As user, I want to have Widget”
  • ๐Ÿง‘๐Ÿป: Great! I’ll add it to the roadmap.

Did you spot the lie? It’s when the team invents a problem simply to justify the solution. But because the problem is made-up, it can’t be scoped or prioritized. It’s impossible to determine the right amount of resources to dedicate to it, or to define success criteria.

Being honest with themselves doesn’t mean that the team can’t say “we want to build Widget.” But it does mean that the problem is defined as “we want to build Widget” and is prioritized accordingly (probably very low on the list). Due to the low prioritization, Widget receives the appropriate amount of resourcing (probably not much). This naturally creates scaled-down success criteria, from “we build Widget” to perhaps “we proved building Widget was possible” or “we proved Widget is desirable to users.”

Why do I say that teams who lie to themselves fall apart?

Because without being able to establish clear success criteria, the team lacks one of the two key aspects of what actually makes a team: shared goals (or in other words, the “definition of good”).

The issue is not that the outcome the team is working towards isn’t a user-facing outcome. It’s pretending that it is. Because real user-facing outcomes have real definitions of good: users being able to reach their goals better than before. Fake user stories don’t have goals. So trust begins to break down. PMs challenge designers on “what users would want.” Devs challenge PMs on what is doable. The guiding principle for each role shifts towards outputs - we will follow our process and produce an output. “Shipped” over “good.”

The team that lies to itself loses trust in itself and starts to focus more and more on project management, chasing deadlines, and treating responsibility for outcomes like a hot potato. “We followed the Scrum process, it’s not our fault.”

Teams that are honest with themselves can identify an appropriate definition of good, even if it’s not user-facing (which is not inherently bad, a lot of valuable work isn’t easy to trace to user outcomes). But crucially, everyone can align on what the desired team outcome is. A team that is honest about its problems, and therefore is able to align on desired outcomes, can work backwards from those outcomes to make decisions in a real Agile way. There is no need for appeal to authority or “I’ll know it when I see it” type feedback/”acceptance testing”.

A team that is aligned on desired outcomes can say “we learned that solution X will not work to achieve goal Y” and can try something else.

A team that lies to itself cannot admit this, because building solution X is their problem. Without solution X, the team has no mandate.

The members of the team that lies to itself are not stupid, however. Individually, eventually, they realize that “build solution X” is not a valuable problem to solve. But without public recognition of this fact, they feel lost & bitter: why can’t anyone else see what I see?

This is the point at which the team starts to fall apart. Enthusiasm evaporates, work that used to energize the team becomes draining. People start leaving. But the team promised solution X to leadership. Stopping would be a crushing blow to credibility.

So now you have a zombie, shambling forward without any objective beyond devouring as many brains as it can. All because the team was initially organized around a lie.

Samsonov comes directly at how yes, this is about epistemology:

Software orgs are shaped by their source of truth.

If the source of truth is users, Agile is great for helping the team continuously develop understanding of fixed user needs. If the source of truth is executives, needs are not fixed. Execs constantly change their mind.

To an outside observer, these may look the same. The team starts out with some understanding of what needs to be built, and that understanding changes over time. But understanding of users can only improve. Exec-driven development is always at risk of being flipped upside-down.

When the goal is to understand users, experimentation is the norm. We don’t build features - we make bets, manage the risks, and learn.

Exec-driven development is extremely hostile to experiments. The HiPPO told you what to build, just build that. Don't ask questions.

So we can’t simply say, “let’s switch to Agile” without effecting change outside the dev team. Agility under HiPPO rule doesn’t look anything like agility for user-facing development. Teams are only thinking about making it easiest to keep up with exec flip-flopping.

An “agile” team in a feature factory must first build expensive, highly flexible architecture, so that pivoting along with exec whims is easy. Story point estimates are punitive to slow down the rate of requests for changes.

But execs don’t want architecture, they want UI! So one or two Java developers draw the short straw, spin up a web app, and start making some kind of website. This is when the org expects designers to contribute. We don’t need testing or research since the exec decided that already. Here is the BRD, draw us some mockups.

You will never be able to justify the value of design in an environment where design is the rendering of executive fiat. The designer can’t change their role simply by making better outputs, or challenging the PM. After all, it's not the PM’s decision either - it’s the exec’s. Rocking that boat is a huge risk.

The only way forward is to take on that risk.

Just because your outputs change from wireframes to processes doesn’t mean that the “make a bet and reduce the risk” model stops applying. Your users: management. Their goals: make money. Unknown: their mental model around converting features into value into money.

There are different schools of thought on how to do that. But it all boils down to: how can you change management’s mental model that experiments are risks, failure, and wasted work? How do you convince them that “just do what I tell you” is actually more risky?

Roja tells a tale of this breakdown happening at Twitter:

Years ago when I was a new PhD grad working at Twitter, there was a director of product who had strong ideas about how to solve the abuse and harassment problem on Twitter.

I worked as a new Data scientist, building a model to detect abuse and then was responsible for A/B testing the solution. His product solution, which he was pretty sure was going to change abuser behavior.

His idea was that if victims did not see the abuse and did not respond to trolls, the trolls would stop the harassment (facepalm). I did the analysis and no change was detectable in abuser behavior.

I was told this guy had already drafted a press release ready for my numbers to be added, claiming that abuser behavior had changed. My results were not good news. There was real pressure on me to keep looking at different cuts of data. Something not super kosher in stats.

I kept getting the same results. And if anyone asked me, I’d have said his solution wasn’t going to change abuser behavior. Anyone who has ever been harassed online or offline knows that “not engaging” the trolls does not protect you from abuse.

I didn’t have a manager at the time (my new manager was on parental leave). There was no one to push back and be on my side. I remember a Google doc where I kept adding comments saying “no evidence of behavior change” wherever there was such a claim. It killed the press release.

But I felt so powerless, in a team of all men, who had a lot of confidence but very little understanding of the problem and even less empathy for the victims of abuse on Twitter (the Sr eng on the team made some disgusting comments about sexism and racism online).

The team’s director of engineering thought the abuse issue on Twitter was a matter of optics (he said this in a meeting I was in). That it wasn’t that bad and if we quickly shipped a few solutions for the supposed abuse problem the media would move on.

I also remember the director of product sitting in a meeting with people from rights groups and folks who were harassed on Twitter and had a very condescending conversation with them. The idea was that he knew what he was doing and these people needed to be handled.

It felt like I was a failure for not getting the “desired” results. What’s worse is that I was part of a wave of layoffs that happened right then, where 30% of employees were let go. I stayed strong but there was a voice inside me that told me I was bad at my job.

I’ve been managing teams of engineers and data scientists for a few years now. But the remnants of that first experience have stayed with me. The feeling that I am an outsider. That these arrogant men owned the place even when they did not understand the problem.

Those eng and product leaders stayed a while and then moved on to the next hot startup and accrued connections and wealth, stabilizing their position in our industry. They didn’t really face any consequences for getting the Twitter abuse problem wrong back then.

I had to get this story off my chest today. But there is a silver lining too. During that same period I met so many amazing people who worked at Twitter. Coworkers who made me feel connected and whom I enjoyed their company greatly and whom I am friends with to this day ♥️.

You all know who you are :) thank you for being great. I appreciate you.

(P.S. I think Twitter has come a long way in terms of cleaning up the timeline from the days of gamergate. Still would love to see it do better, especially in non-English languages)

Arvind Venkataramani has encountered a weird self-awareness about this:

A belief that exposure to human-centered design can overcome inherent power differences is a great way to be blind to the ways in which people are misusing power.

I’ve been told to my face (by someone solidly entrenched in the organisation) after presenting research insights and the raw data and analysis process that led me there, that I was making it all up.

At some point it is a useful heuristic to suspect people in power ๐Ÿคท‍♂️

Cat Hicks offers Five Things I’ve Learned in Ten Years of being a Social Scientist in Tech

  1. We keep saying data when we mean measurement
  2. Specificity is ok, qualitative is ok
  3. Ships of Theseus & Zombie Luggage
  4. Is Social Science any good?
  5. Evidence Science

Several Twitter gems from Erika Just Enough Research Hall:

I also turn down every job which can be described as “help us do research so we can use the data to convince the person in charge of the value of research”. If that person doesn't already value a particular source of evidence, it's not going to happen.
Never say “validate” unless you are talking about parking. Evaluate!
I get asked “How do I use data to convince someone of a thing?” all the time. And my answer is always, “Go back in time and build a relationship with that person before trying to change their mind.” In the current moment, you can listen to their reasoning and ask questions.
Too often, the reason research findings are ignored by the business, is that the business model itself is based on a combination of fiction and extraction.

Other domains

A comparable example from an article about picking a host for Jeopardy.

For example, much has been made of Sony’s use of analytics to identify a front-runner. “We want to go at this with real analytics and real testing and not just go, ‘Hey, how about this guy?’” Richards told a Wall Street Journal podcast in April. Indeed, the studio called out this element in its announcement of Richards and Bialik, who Sony TV chairman Ravi Ahuja said “were both at the top of our research and analysis.” On Saturday, The New York Times reported that Richards alone selected the episodes that were sent to focus groups for review; the show’s two supervising producers, Lisa Broffman and Rocky Schmidt, who are both in their fourth decade working on the show, were excluded from the process. When The Ringer asked about the Times focus group report, neither Sony nor Richards offered comment.

Dorian Taylor gets philosophical about decision-based evidence-making maybe being the root of evidence-based decision-making:

over the last two years i have thought about this paper more than ever Why do humans reason? Arguments for an argumentative theory

and i still will make the effort to point out that they missed the most amazing opportunity for a title: an argument for argument as the reason for reason

tldr

  • we take the positions that align with our agendas; if people agree or disagree with us then okay, but what about the people on the fence?
  • that's where reasoning comes in
  • the fact that reasoning also yields logic and math and science and problem-solving is pure side effect

i love this idea. i think it is absolutely delicious

is it true? i don’t know. i don't care. i’m doing what they said i would

but holy crap it explains so much

the way i have come to treat theories in the social sciences is like a bet: they are often too spongy to be conclusively true but what if you behaved as if it were true? what kinds of outcomes would you get? i find that’s pretty easy to game out a lot of the time

also it exposes a lot of bad theories because you just ask “what evidence would it take for this theory to be false” and i mean that’s like elementary my dear popper

but in the same vein it doesn’t matter if a theory is “true”, just if it predicts outcomes reliably enough

and being true and predicting outcomes aren’t the exact same thing

like take physics: are quarks real? they are “real” in the sense that you can make calculations with them and predict real outcomes, but a physicist will tell you a quark is really just a prosthesis for thinking

is there a thing there For Real?™

at that scale what does that even mean

so, back to the paper’s hypothesis: people reason in order to persuade people on the fence to come over to their side first, and to solve problems a distant second

what would falsify that hypothesis? dunno man, it’s psychology. falsifying their hypotheses can actually get pretty tough, i’d have to think about it

okay, what if it were true? what bets could you make and could you attribute any payoff to the hypothesis being true?

The implications of decision-based evidence-making in politics politics are immense. Consider the question Why Did We Invade Iraq?:

But the intelligence analysts who were most expert in the region and in the technology for making and handling WMDs couldn’t find persuasive evidence to make the case that Saddam had any, and Tenet did what he could to suppress their skepticism. A holdover from the previous administration, he had been frustrated by Bill Clinton’s lack of interest in what the CIA had to offer. For any CIA director, the president is the “First Customer”—the sole source of the agency’s power—and under Clinton that power had dissipated. By contrast Bush, especially after September 11, was riveted by the agency’s reports; he had Tenet personally deliver its Presidential Daily Briefing at 8 AM, six days a week. At last, the CIA had a seat at the big table, and Tenet wasn’t going to blow it.

[⋯]

Senior officials throughout the national security bureaucracy—Tenet very much among them—inferred from these and other incidents that the decision to invade was a fait accompli and made sure to hop aboard, lest they lose their influence. This “fevered swamp of fear and genuine threat” particularly pervaded Cheney’s office, which Draper calls “the Bush administration’s think tank of the unthinkable.” Tenet went so far as to supply Team Cheney with a “Red Cell”—a group whose job was to invent the scariest scenarios and draw the most far-fetched connect-the-dot conspiracies imaginable in “punchy” three-page memos. (“Our goal,” one of its members said, “was plausibility, not anybody’s notion of truth.”) Cheney, Libby, and Wolfowitz loved its work. (The one question the Red Cell did not ask, Draper notes, was “What if Saddam Hussein did not possess WMD?”)

AI as a bullshit machine

One of my very favorite essays on the internet, Teresa Nielsen Hayden’s Common Fraud, concludes with the chilling conclusion about faux research that “deceiving us has become an industrial process”. Pookleblinky speculates on the political implications of it becoming fully automated:

In Dirk Gently’s Holistic Detective Agency, a programmer is working on an AI system that proves theorems. He fucks up, and makes it run backwards instead: given a statement, it constructs a proof for it. The Pentagon immediately falls in love with it.

At the time, this was considered a joke. The idea that you could ask a computer how to justify why you need to go to war, or make something illegal, or kill some group of people, and it’d pop out a whole argument for it.

Now consider DALLE and similar systems. The exact same generative model can generate text, code, data, etc. Not just images. With only a bit of tweaking, a DALLE-alike could generate persuasive arguments given a prompt. A wall of text, with accompanying generated stock footage, that you could text-to-speech (TTS) and upload to youtube.

Youtube has a lot of channels which simply read news articles and reddit posts aloud, accompanied by stock images. Boomers spend hours watching this like babies watching pregnant elsa foot torture on autoplay. There is a huge youtube genre that consists of a TTS voice, reading text, while stock footage is shown. When boomers say “I do my research” they mean they watch 5+ hours of these videos each day.

With a tiny bit of tweaking, you could make a DALLE-alike that effortlessly produces basically infinite such videos. Endless content. “Dalle, make a 5 minute video about how george soros and fauci are lizard people, stock footage of scary doctors”. The mean cost of producing a truly staggering amount of propaganda, drops to basically nothing.

“DALLE, give me a 3 hour long compilation of urban decay and a narrator arguing against immigration.”

“DALLE, give me 10 30-minute videos of angry amber heard caricatures with upbeat ragtime piano music”

“DALLE, give me a 20 minute video of ben shapiro's voice talking negatively about trans people, over stock footage of monty python wearing dresses”

Basically: infinite, endless propaganda, in a form effortlessly consumed.

You already know how autoplay traps vulnerable people into radicalization rabbit holes. How much more effective do you think the pipeline to blood libel will be, when the cost of saturating the infosphere drops to basically zero? Picture a boomer, watching 10 hours of virulent hate speech on youtube, not a second of which was made by a human.

“Kermit as tony soprano” and “kermit as comic book count dracula,” except it’s mutually contradictory versions of blood libel or false flag conspiracies. Picture layers of algorithms that target an audience, generate content to show to that audience that ensures high engagement metrics, and not one of those algorithms understands what hate speech is.

Imagine a boomer, trapped in an infinite conspiracy theory rabbit hole, made just for them.

This brings us back to tech & design by way of Pavel Samsonov again, who observes No, AI user research is not “better than nothing” — it’s much worse.

Another epistemic break

I cannot resist transcribing into this post a Twitter thread from Emmett Sheara about a similarly-astonishing dialogue revealing a different epistemic disjoint.

I attended Hereticon in 2022, and I had an experience there that made a truly deep impact on me. Getting to the conclusion was a trek for me, so you’re going to have to listen to the whole story.

The conference itself was effectively TED from the Nega-Earth dimension: only talks the NYT would not approve of, lots of interesting young people, low prep talks, great parties.

While it is true that, as they say, reversed stupidity is not Intelligence, I had a great time. Only a couple of the talks grabbed me but I had some incredible conversations. Did you know you can use nicotine gum as a reinforcement tool to condition yourself to exercise?

At the end of the weekend I was lounging by the pool with a few friends, talking about the future.the sky was clear and the moon was up, and I said something like, “it still fills me with wonder and joy that we managed to actually land someone on the moon”.

Another conference attendee pipes up from the next seat over. “You know that was faked, right?”

It’s Hereticon. Of course someone thinks the moon landing was fake. I’m barely surprised.

“I did not know that. I’ve seen a video … tell me, how do you know?”

“Oh. Well, that’s pretty straightforward. Space doesn’t exist.”

I have to admit, this caught me a little flat-footed. It is true, if space isn’t real then the moon landing was definitely faked.

Me: “That’s a new one for me! Ok, I’ll bite. What happens if I keep going up?”

Guy: “You hit the crystal sphere.”

Me: “Ok, cool. So I have a question about what it’s made of, but let’s just say I drill through the sphere and keep going. Then what?”

Guy: “Water. Lots of water.”

Me: “Ok, we bring a submarine. What happens if I keep going?”

Guy: “You know I’m not sure … no one’s ever gone to see.”

Me: “Ok fair enough. How does the crystal sphere stay up? Why doesn’t the massive weight of water crush it and fall in on us?”

Guy: “I don’t think it works that way, but I’m not an expert. I can send you some YouTube videos.”

Me: “That’s ok. Let’s talk about another part of it. How do satellites work?”

Guy: “High altitude weather balloons”

Me: “But they go really fast, wouldn’t they burn up?”

Guy: “I’m not sure but I think the atmosphere is really thin.”

Me: “No problem, how about the ISS? I’ve seen phone calls to there in zero gravity.”

Guy: “Sound stage, it’s all faked.”

Me: “I’m not sure how they fake the gravity, but you know you can literally see the ISS from earth right? Like we could go look up where it is and see it tonight w a telescope. And it’s moving really fast … if it was in the atmosphere it would burn up.”

Guy: “Well I should go check that out, I haven’t heard that before. But it’s probably faked somehow, I just don’t know how.”

At this point, I basically gave up on the space thing. I assume he’d gotten brainwormed by flat earther YouTube videos. Let’s move on. But it’s Jan 2022 … COVID was still very much on everyone’s mind … so I have to ask.

“So, I have to ask. The vaccines, what’s up with them?”

Guy: “They don’t work, obviously.”

Me: “obviously, I mean that’s what I expected. But how do you know?”

Guy: “that’s easy. Viruses aren’t real. I mean, infectious diseases in general aren’t real.”

At this point I have to understand.

He seems so reasonable and well spoken, but his epistemology is completely deranged. What the hell is going on???

I dig. I dig. I ask every question, I offer mental models, I give challenges he can’t answer but nothing works.

Finally, I hit on the right question. “What is the underlying nature of knowing truth to you? What’s the gold standard for evidence? Everyone has to take a lot on faith, there’s too much to figure it all out. But ultimately, what form of evidence trumps all others?”


Interregnum: I encourage you to actually consider this question. What is it that grounds out truth for you? This isn’t a trick question, go with the obvious and naive answer.

Srsly think about your answer (and what other people might answer) before you keep reading. It’s more fun that way and you learn more.


So eventually he comes to his answer. When someone presents an idea, he connects with them. He looks in their eyes. He considers their motivations. And if their argument is internally consistent with itself. And if all the signs are green, he trusts them and that’s truth.

This just blew me away. It’s a fundamentally social theory of truth. Truth is based on credible arguments presented by trustworthy people. That is not what truth is to me, at all.

For me, the gold standard of truth is what I can see, hear, taste, smell, feel for myself. What is “true” is what my current conceptual model of the world can infer from that data.

(Actually truth is whatever reflects the underlying nature of reality, we are talking here only about our current best guess at truth, but this is an unavoidable distinction for finite beings who cannot know Truth)

I’d never heard someone actually say the quiet part out loud like that before. I think perhaps many people have his relationship to the truth, but with more normal choices for people to trust, and therefore more standard beliefs (and more correct ones IMO).

At this point I completely lost interest in discussing space and viruses and etc w him any further. Because I’d understood what had been driving me to ask and ask … I’d figured out how this seemingly smart man had come to conclusions that seemed so insane.

I’ve come up with names for these two sides (tho I’d be interested in better ones, if anyone has them): team words-mean-things, and team alliances.

The sense-data theory of truth leads to team words-mean-things. Because the goal of words, at least outside of art, is to convey sense data impressions and models inferred from them. And to do this well, one must care fanatically that your use of the word is the same as theirs.

The canonical sign you are talking to a words-mean-things person is the exasperated sigh followed by “wait but i thought you said X was Y, but now it’s not Y?”

The credible-talk-from-trusted-sources theory of truth by contrast leads to team alliances. Because if you get the words a little wrong, it’s fine, you can trust the ultimate conclusions regardless as long as you can trust them. As long as they’re on your team.

The canonical sign you’re talking to a team alliances person is when they seem more interested in figuring out whether you’re on their team than whether the details of your words make sense. “Is he a good guy?”


Alliances : Words-Mean-Things
    ::
Mimesis : First Principles

Given my team, my take feels anti-alliances. But learning-via-trust has a lot to recommend it. I don’t think one is “better”. But know yourself, know who you’re talking to, and connect at their level.

31 January 2024

Apple Vision Pro, eye tracking, and the cursors of the future

I am fascinated by how the Apple Vision Pro identifies where the user is looking, treating that locus of attention much like the cursor used on the Mac and other desktop computers; one “clicks” with hand gestures. This is a cunning way to make desktop software usable on this very different platform, and discerning this by watching eye movements is an astonishing technological feat. It is not just a matter of precisely detecting where the eye is pointed, which would be hard enough; our eyes constantly jitter around in saccades, so the Vision Pro has to deduce from this complex unconscious movement where the user has their attention in their subjective experience.

Modifying desktop computer interfaces

It is fun to think about exotic alternatives to the conventional mouse/trackpad & cursor combination. The big gestural interfaces seen in science fiction movies mostly turn out to be a bad idea — Tom Cruise was exhausted after fifteen minutes of just pretending to use them in Minority Report — but I believe that there are opportunities for innovation. Clayton Miller’s 10/gui considers ways we might take advantage of a huge multi-touch surface instead of a little trackpad. Bruce Tognazzini’s Starfire from 1994 is still ahead of available technology, bursting with both good & bad ideas for combining direct manipulation with touchscreens & styluses together with indirect manipulation using a mouse or trackpad. Devices like the iPad have begun to unlock the promise of distinguishing fingers from styluses to create more graceful, complex interaction idioms by combining the two; a few specialists use stylus input tools like Wacom tablets at the desktop, and I feel an itch that more people might benefit from integration of stylus input into their desktop experience.

So might we just replace the mouse/trackpad & cursor with eye tracking? No. I cannot imagine that it could ever provide the fine precision of the mouse/trackpad (or a stylus). But I think eye tracking could combine well with those input tools to make some things more graceful. It would not require fine precision, just the ability to register which window the user is currently looking at.

Discussion with Raghav Agrawal underlines that I am proposing something I hope would deliver a fundamentaly different experience than the Apple Vision Pro. A user of the Vision Pro feels that they control the system with their gaze. A user of the desktop should still feel that they control the system with the mouse, with the system aware of their gaze and using that to ensure that it Just Does The Right Thing.

Solving some multi-monitor challenges

I think this will prove especially valuable if one has multiple big screens, which I expect more and more people to do as they get better and cheaper. I am a lunatic who uses a big wide monitor, a big tall monitor, my laptop’s 16" display, and a little teleprompter display at my desk. I love being able to look around at several open windows, and expect that many people will discover how good this is for work.

But using existing mouse-cursor-window interfaces with multiple big screens does come with disadvantages. Dragging-and-dropping across expansive screens gets clumsy. One can lose track of the cursor in all that space; even wiggling the cursor does not always make it easy to find. With a lot of windows open, one can easily lose track of which one is currently selected.

A radical proposal for multiple cursors

Rather than drive the cursor to appear at the point of one’s visual focus — one does not want the cursor racing back and forth across the screen every time one glances at information on another screen — I think it would work to have a cursor in each window, with mouse/trackpad actions affecting only the window one is currently looking at. When one looks away from a window, its cursor stays where one left it.

This puts a cursor within view wherever one looks, easy to find. Maybe on a big window, if one has not looked at it in a while the cursor returns to the center or gets a little momentary flash of emphasis when one looks back at that window.

The Mac puts the Menu Bar at the top of the screen because the edge preventing overshooting make it easier to decisively mouse to an element there. Keeping the cursor confined to the boundaries of each window makes all four window edges this kind of convenient interface territory.

Integrating eye tracking also eliminates the need to have a selected window to keep track of. In existing systems, actions like using the mouse scroll wheel can produce an awkward surprise when it does not affect the document in view, instead disrupting the content of a window which one has forgotten remained selected. With eye tracking, user actions can always just affect the thing they have in view, eliminating that problem. (I will get to one important exception to this pattern in a moment.)

Acting across multiple windows

Confining input effects to within windows seems like it would break a lot of interaction gestures which require moving across multiple windows, but I think everything one must do that way now can work at least as well in my proposal.

Again, we do not need to move the cursor across windows to select one; attention tracking eliminates the need for a selected window.

One need not move the cursor across windows to do window management. The edges of windows remain drag handles for resizing them and moving them around, and as I said above, with the cursor confined to the window, these become easier targets. One can combine this with the buttons and other controls I envision putting at those edges: drag to affect the window, click to use the control. I am a crank who perfers a tiled display to overlapping windows, but handling overlapping windows is fine: look at the protruding bit and click to pop it to the front.

Drag-and-drop across windows would require a bit of an adjustment, but eye tracking enables an improvement. One starts dragging an object in one window — turns to the other window — and that window’s cursor is right there with the object attached, responding to mouse movements. This will be more graceful, with less mouse movement and less risk of dropping onto the wrong window when dragging between windows on separate screens.

Imagine working with two text documents, referencing an old one while authoring a new one, bouncing back-and-forth between the two. Turning from the new document to the old one briefly, one might scroll to the next page in the old document, use the cursor in that document to select something one wants to quote, copy it, then turn back to the new document to find the cursor waiting right where one left it, ready to paste in the quote.

Plain text as the input exception

Keyboard shortcuts would act on the window one is looking at, just like mouse movement and clicks. But plain text is a little trickier.

It should be obvious how in the new-and-old document example above one may want to type into the new document while looking at the old one. There are a lot of situations like that. Text input boxes need a standard interface element allowing one to lock the box as the target of plaintext input from the keyboard; when that is active, other text input boxes show as unavailable. So one need not hunt down the locked text input box to unlock it, when a text box shows as unavailable, it would a control to unlock the old locked text box, allowing text input to go where one is looking ... or to immediately make that text box the new locked input target.

Having proposed this interface idiom, I am tempted to want the this ability to lock the text input target, overriding the selected window, in the conventional systems we have now!

19 January 2024

The Point Is

I had the good fortune to be at this talk at the 1996 Computer Game Developers’ conference, and it has stuck in my mind ever since. In retrospect, it anticipated not just Facebook’s Metaverse project but Facebook itself. Since Moriarty’s original post has linkrotted, I am re-posting it here for my convenience.

A few preparatory observations for young readers:

  • In 1996, it was still common for computers in an office to not even be networked to each other, much less to the internet. Few people used internet at home. Those who did used modems to connect their computer over their phone line to a nerdy internet service provider ... or more likely AOL, which was still more a walled garden than a connection to the internet. Google had not yet been founded.
  • Seriously, those modems were slow. People used interlaced GIFs on web pages because they would give you a blurry version of the image first, while you waited another half a minute for the images to fully load.
  • It was a common practice for web pages to include a counter at the bottom of the page tallying how many times the page had ever been visited.
  • The Pentium was a new chip used in Windows computers. Incremental differences in chip speeds we would now consider laughable made a big difference in what computers could and could not do; just a few years earlier, the release of the computer game Doom with real-time 3D graphics — primitive as they were — was a happy shock about what had just become possible on ordinary home computers.
  • Sand Hill Road was (and still is) a street in Palo Alto with the offices of many venture capital firms funding Silicon Valley.
  • In this context, “MUD” stands for “multi-user dungeon/dimension/domain”, a very early form of proto-social-media proto-virtual-reality. A large number of people could communicate in text with a computer which had a map of a world with multiple connected spaces — the name comes from the earliest implementations which had maps of a Dungeons & Dragons type “dungeon” full of monsters to slay and magical items to find, but in later versions an array of weird and interesting possibilities. When connected to a MUD, the system understood you as occupying in a particular “room” on the map, and one could move through the map by telling the system to go through doors or whatever; if multiple people were “in” the same place, they would “see” each other in the description of the room, “hear” each other talking (in text chat), and could interact in other ways mediated by the system.


The Point Is — 1996 — Brian Moriarty

The Point Is was the first of my fully scripted lectures. Today, writing on the 10th anniversary of its premiere, it seems to me rather quaint, inspired by the psychedelic muse of San Francisco, and representative of the wide-eyed techno-optimism of the mid-1990s. Parts of it make me cringe. Other parts seem eerily prescient. I must have been on drugs, or something.

Version 1 was originally presented on 1 February 1996, at Mpath’s Internet Game Developers Conference in San Jose, California. On this occasion, I was fortunate enough to command a decent budget and broad control over the venue and equipment, allowing the lecture to be presented under nearly ideal conditions.

The large conference room was completely darkened. Suspended above the stage area was an equilateral triangle, one meter on a side, covered with black light-absorbing material. Affixed to the center of the triangle was a dime-sized dot of 3M retro-reflective plastic. The beam of a 3-watt liquid-cooled green argon laser was focused onto the reflective dot to produce a dazzling point of coherent radiation. Although the point was completely motionless throughout the performance, random wave interference caused it to twinkle and scintillate eerily. The live narration and recorded music were reproduced at room-shaking volume through a high-performance stereophonic sound system.

Excerpts of Version 1 were presented on 21 February 1996 at Imagina in Monte Carlo, and 3 March 1996 at the SPA Spring Symposium, San Francisco.

Version 2 (reproduced below) was given on 31 March 1996 at the Game Developers Conference in Santa Clara, California. The presentation was similar to that of 1 February, although the laser and sound system were less authoritative. George “Fat Man” Sanger provided an introduction.

Excerpts of Version 2 were presented on 5 November 1996 at Online Entertainment ’96 in London.




You are about to take part in an experiment.

An experiment in group attentiveness.

For this experiment to work, it is important that you not look at me while I am speaking.

I have extinguished the house lights to discourage you from watching me.

Instead of looking at me, or anything else, I invite you to contemplate this point of coherent light.

Fix your eyes on the point as you listen to the sound of my voice.

The point will not move while I am speaking.

But, if you gaze at it steadily, expectantly, it may appear to wander.

The point will not change color or size.

But, if you fix your eyes upon it conscientiously, it may appear to oscillate in diameter or hue.

These illusions will occur only if you still your mind, and fix your eyes on the point.

Regard the space around the point, and together we will share an illusion.

This is not an attempt to hypnotize you. I am not a hypnotist.

I am an engineer of illusions that can be shared.

We are all about to become engineers of shared illusion.

This particular illusion has been engineered to fascinate you.

To fascinate you with possibilities.

The possibilities of the Internet and the World Wide Web.

Engineered to suspend your skepticism.

To transfix your attention. Attention.

The point of this experiment is to achieve attention.

Attention has not been a problem for the Internet or the World Wide Web.

Everybody here knows that the Net has become too important to ignore.

What is surprising is that the Web is succeeding in spite of the fact that it is based on very primitive technology.

Almost all of the home computers connected to the Web employ modems and analog voice lines.

Even the fastest modems are too stately. Even 28.8 V.34 is too majestic.

Many consumers are using service providers with out-of-date equipment or inadequate infrastructure.

This makes the torpid Web experience even more frustrating.

We know these problems will go away soon.

Consumers are beginning to learn about digital alternatives to modems and voice lines.

The cost of these alternatives is plummeting faster than anyone dared to hope.

Soon modems will be doorstops.

Consumers are learning that some Internet service providers are more reliable than others.

Soon anything less than lively, robust access to the Web will be unacceptable.

These trends are encouraging.

There are also ways to maximize the performance of the Web.

Strategic deployment of servers. Enlightened application design.

Other approaches that make the most of existing hardware and connections.

These technologies are effective.

But the Web’s success isn’t relying on these trends or technologies.

The Web doesn’t need any new technology in order to become popular.

It already is popular.

Despite modems and analog voice lines and generally crummy service, the Web is one of the biggest success stories of the 90s.

Thousands of people sign up every day.

Over a hundred new Web sites appear every hour.

There must be something about the Web people like.

What is it that makes people like the Web?

What is it that makes people like anything?

What is the origin and purpose of pleasure?

Biologists tell us that our brains contain faculties for creating enjoyable sensations.

They have coined a sophisticated technical term for these faculties.

They call them “pleasure centers.”

Nobody knows how they really work.

But everyone knows that some behaviors feel better than others.

Behaviors like eating, gathering, talking, playing, and having sex.

Biologists explain pleasure by invoking a process they call “natural selection.”

This process is said to favor the evolution of brains that give positive feedback for behaviors which provide a survival advantage.

In other words, nature rewards life-affirming behaviors with pleasure.

That’s why it feels good to eat.

Nature rewards a healthy appetite.

That’s why it feels good to collect things.

Nature rewards acquisitiveness.

And that is why it feels good to talk and to play.

Nature rewards communicators.

It feels good to communicate.

People like the World Wide Web because it satisfies the need to communicate.

The need to feel connected.

The need to not be alone.

Yet today, the Web is a curiously lonely experience.

You are surrounded by millions of surfers, but you can’t wave to anybody

All you get is a number at the bottom of the home page, indicating how many chances to meet someone you missed.

Happily, this is beginning to change.

Soon the Web will begin to notice you.

Soon the Web will be able to process commands faster than you can submit them, and formulate interesting responses in real time.

When that happens, the Web will become conversational.

When that happens, the Web will become interactive.

There will be two very popular uses for this new Interactive Web.

One will be conversation. The other will be multiplayer games.

Multiplayer games offer people the joy of communication.

Single-player games do not.

Multiplayer games are more involving.

More addictive. More delicious. More fun.

The designers and engineers of computer games have always known this.

The designers and engineers of computer games have always known that multiplayer games would someday challenge and eventually eclipse single-player games.

The designers and engineers of computer games have been waiting for over twenty years for a chance to become the designers and engineers of shared illusions.

All we need is an adequate network with an adequate number of users.

All we need is adequate computing power.

All we need is an adequate operating standard.

Thanks to the Internet, the wait is almost over.

Thanks to the Pentium, the wait is almost over.

And, like it or not, thanks to Windows, the wait is almost over.

So what are waiting for now?

We are waiting for a chance to build the games.

For a visionary executive. For an enlightened venture partner.

Somebody who understands that a multiplayer option tacked on to a single-player game at the last minute and with great reluctance is not going to be good enough.

But history suggests that these things are unlikely to materialize on demand.

History suggests that we will probably have to wait for the first Big Online Hit.

Sometime soon, somebody, possibly somebody in this room, is going create an online game that will capture the imagination of the world.

An online game that will become so popular the network will be threatened with collapse.

Congress will scramble to investigate it.

Wall Street and Sand Hill Road will scramble to invest in it.

Pundits will scramble to say they predicted it.

And everyone, everyone, everyone in this room will scramble to imitate it.

Sometime soon, the Gold Rush will begin.

The Big Online Hit will probably not be like Doom or Wing Commander or Super Mario World.

Although popular among hobbyists, these games are too brash and complicated for anybody else.

The Big Online Hit will probably reach beyond the hobbyists to a much larger group of people.

The people who loved Trivial Pursuit. The people who hated Rubik’s Cube.

The millions and millions of ordinary people who went crazy over Pac-Man.

Like these games, the Big Online Hit will be easy to learn, but difficult to master.

It will be approachable and inviting.

It will be abstract. It will be non-violent. It will be inexpensive.

It will be everywhere.

What kind of market will develop to support the Big Online Hit and its many imitators?

What will we be selling our customers on the Interactive Web?

To begin with, we will not be selling them things anymore.

Our products will be digital.

Digital products do not need to be wrapped in boxes if our customers are wired to our offices.

Everything we have to offer them could be downloaded.

Everything we build for them should be designed to be downloaded.

Unfortunately, the first online games will probably be too big.

Developers have yet to outgrow the fetish of gratuitous data streaming made possible by CD-ROM.

Publishers are still unwilling to face the fact that the parts of their games they’re spending the most on are the parts their customers care about least.

They will stubbornly continue to produce games that require a CD-ROM.

This is not a practice that should be encouraged.

This is our chance to transcend CD-ROM, and all physical packaging.

Well-designed online games will be entirely downloadable.

Don’t forget that modems will soon be a thing of the past.

How soon?

Within two product cycles, a twenty or thirty megabyte download will seem only slightly excessive.

And it only gets better from there.

The convenience and economics of online distribution are irresistible.

Everyone will be much happier when the age of online distribution begins.

Everyone, that is, except the distributors and retailers of boxes.

Let us have a moment of silence for the distributors and retailers of boxes.

     §

If we won’t be selling our customers things anymore, what will be selling them?

We will be selling our customers the pleasure of communicating with each other.

We will be selling our customers to each other.

How can we best sell our customers to each other?

We should first recognize that we are about to enter into a profound social contract with our customers.

We’ll no longer have retailers to handle our customers for us.

Soon we’ll be handling them directly.

We’ll be handling their problems, handling their money directly.

But they’ll be entrusting us with more than just their problems and money.

They’ll be entrusting us with the way they look and sound online.

With the way they come across.

With their secrets. With their dignity.

Our customers will insist that we respect their privacy.

That we protect their anonymity.

That we allow them freedom of expression.

That we mirror those expressions without distortion.

That we treat adults like adults.

That we offer parents the tools they need to make informed choices for their children.

To serve our customers best, we have to get out of our customers’ way.

Our customers don’t want to remember that we are facilitating everything they say and do online.

The more we make them aware of our presence, the more they will resent our presence.

Our goal should be to magnify our customers presence while concealing our own.

Our customers will be attracted to those games and services that offer the highest quality of presence.

Ours will be an economy of presence.

How do we measure the quality of presence?

It can measured by answering a few simple questions:

How easy is it to arrive?

How easy is it to congregate?

How easy is it to communicate?

In these pioneering days, it’s to be expected that some of the solutions being offered for managing the quality of presence will be somewhat primitive.

One of the most primitive is the prevailing aesthetic of virtual presence.

The aesthetic known as “virtual reality.”

Some definitions.

By virtual presence, I refer to any artificial extension of awareness.

By virtual reality, I refer to a particular style of virtual presence.

I refer to a simulation of perceptual reality that tries to make you feel as if you are someplace else.

So virtual presence and virtual reality are not necessarily the same thing.

Nevertheless, many people seem to believe that they are.

The aesthetic of virtual reality is overwhelmingly pervasive.

Especially among engineers, and also among the fans of a category of science fiction called cyberpunk.

In the cyberpunk novel Snow Crash, there is a very exclusive virtual night club called the Black Sun.

One of the things that makes the Black Sun so exclusive and special is that, unlike the low-rent portions of cyberspace where avatars pass through each other freely, patrons of the Black Sun must walk around each another or collide.

I read this description and thought it was a witty satire.

Unfortunately, many would-be engineers of shared illusion have read Snow Crash and adopted it as a specification.

The heresy needs to be spoken: The cyberpunk conception of virtual reality is not really very interesting.

Only a hacker would find the problem of avatar collision interesting.

Virtual reality imposes a materialistic space-time metaphor on the experience of virtual presence.

Space and time are exalted in virtual reality.

Even the word “cyber-SPACE” acknowledges their eminence.

But the space-time metaphor is not powerful enough.

Virtual reality is plagued with serious problems about how many people will fit in a conversation space and how to avoid overlaps and log-jams and backing yourself into a virtual corner.

Proposed solutions have been awkward and unsatisfying.

Distances and obstacle avoidance may be realistic, but they are not elegant.

Having to wait before you can arrive may be lifelike, but it is not efficient, or fun.

These constraints are appropriate if you’re building a flight simulator or some other model of a real space-time process.

But space-time simulation is being adopted as the metaphor of choice for all virtual presence.

Verisimilitude is not our concern. Simulation is not our business.

Communication is our business.

We are not necessarily selling our customers an alternative reality.

We are selling our customers to each other.

The space-time metaphor represents a monumental failure of the imagination.

This metaphor has exactly one benefit: it is familiar.

So how important is familiarity?

The history of motion pictures offers an amusing lesson.

In the early days, stories were adapted to the screen by framing a stationary camera view around the field of action.

This technique yielded a stage-like perspective that was familiar to audiences.

A few pioneers came along who thought it might be interesting to move the camera closer to the actors for dramatic emphasis.

A couple of real troublemakers wanted to move so close that only the actors’ heads would be visible.

Producers and exhibitors were aghast.

Producers and exhibitors thought the idea of showing parts of actors was macabre.

They actually declared that if the frameline divided an actor’s image at the neck, the audience might conclude that the actor had been decapitated.

They believed that film was a reproduction medium only.

But audiences were more sophisticated than that.

They were happy to embrace unfamiliar ideas if they made movies more powerful and interesting.

They came to understand that movies could be used not only to reproduce perception, but to represent the process of thought itself.

Now, if the hundred-year-old technology of perforated film can be used to represent the thought process, why can’t virtual presence?

Isn’t the thought process more interesting than collision detection?

We need to ask ourselves how to make virtual presence do what we really want, rather than how well we can make it approach what reality will always do better.

We are talking about the quality of presence again.

So ask the questions:

How easy is it to arrive?

How easy is it to congregate?

How easy is it to communicate?

We can begin by devising ways to transcend the conventions of space and time.

Our bodies and our brains seem to be trapped in space and time.

But the Web is not an environment for the body or the brain.

The Web is an environment for the mind.

For the mind.

We’ve been thinking about virtual presence as if we have to send our bodies out there.

We don’t.

If we could design reality for our minds, what powers would we grant ourselves?

The ability to be anywhere instantly would be a step in the right direction.

The ability to be everywhere all at once, without going mad, is the real challenge.

Why should our minds roll around like cameras, when they can zoom and focus like lenses?

Why settle for avatars, when we can be angels?

Our goal should not be virtual reality.

Our goal should be actual ubiquity.

Space and time are not intrinsic properties of virtual presence.

Space and time will not exist in virtual presence unless we bring them with us.

Space and time are boring.

Let’s not invite them.

     §

Now, it’s all very well to talk about evicting space and time from virtual presence.

It’s quite another to imagine what virtual presence would actually be like without them.

What will it be like when we transcend space and time?

How will we navigate without dimensions?

How will we tell things apart?

How will we separate things?

There can be no rational answers to these questions.

To formulate a response, we must be prepared to set aside rationality.

I first heard the word “strange” used this way to describe future technology by Peter Bergman of the Firesign Theater, at a lunch in 1994.

We must be prepared to embrace Strangeness.

I’m not talking about strangeness that is merely curious or weird.

Not strangeness as in bungee jumping or platypuses or Michael Jackson’s pet monkey.

I’m talking about the kind of Strangeness that goes beyond language.

The kind of Strangeness that is offensive to the intellect.

Strangeness so profoundly alien, a shift of consciousness is required to deal with it without going mad.

The kind of Strangeness that Lovecraft used to write about.

This is Strangeness with a capital S.

Strangeness like the square root of negative one.

Like superstrings and black holes.

Really Strange things seem to emerge from outside space and time.

From the realm of imagination.

So, when we ask what virtual presence would be like without space and time, the general answer is that it will be imaginary.

The precise answer is that it will be Strange.

Some of you are wondering why you should concern yourself with Strangeness.

Isn’t it enough to keep building knockoffs of the last big hit?

Isn’t it safer to let somebody else take the arrows in the back?

The truth is that every single one of you is going to be building Strange products.

The question is, who will have the vision to build them while they still seem Strange?

We must explore Strangeness because that is what the future would look like if we could see it today.

Embracing strangeness doesn’t mean abandoning the dictates of common sense or sound business practice.

It simply means you must be willing to take enough risk.

How do you know when you are taking enough risk?

If nobody is complaining about your work, you’re probably not taking enough risk.

If nobody is slapping themselves upside the head.

If nobody is saying, “I knew that!”

If anybody can afford to ignore what you are doing, you are not being Strange enough.

The format of this lecture may have seemed strange to you at the beginning.

By now you are probably getting used to it.

So let’s raise our collective attention to a higher level of Strangeness.

Keep your eyes on the point, and together we will explore Strangeness.

Archaeological and linguistic evidence suggests that ancient civilizations did not necessarily share our Western concept of the Self.

The concept that each of us is a separate, independent consciousness moving through space and time.

The basic dualism of the perceiver and the perceived.

The concept Freud called the Ego.

Most of us accept experiential dualism as a fundamental aspect of reality.

But some religious traditions maintain that Dualism and the Ego have nothing to do with reality.

These religions teach that separateness is only an illusion.

An illusion that can be dispelled by certain esoteric practices.

These religions possess Strange but demonstrably effective technologies that allow individuals to achieve states of consciousness that transcend the illusion of separateness.

And what do these transcendent individuals have to tell us?

They tell us that we all deeply connected.

Part of a network of minds. A web of souls.

An economy of presence.

Does any of this sound familiar?

And they tell us that it is space and time that prevent us from realizing our essential unity.

That space and time are precisely the illusions that keep us apart.

Scientific materialists don’t like to hear this stuff.

A materialist might concede the possibility that space and time and separateness are some kind of mental illusions.

But they will expect us to postulate an evolutionary purpose for these illusions.

The doctrine of natural selection demands that our brains must have developed these basic organizing metaphors because they provide some kind of survival advantage.

What is the advantage of believing that we are all separate?

All different?

Consider that without differences, there could be no comparisons.

Without separateness, there could be no dissatisfaction.

There could be no striving or competition or progress.

Without separateness, we would never have bothered to leave the paradise of Africa.

We would never have become farmers or builders or warriors.

We would never have aspired to the Renaissance or the Industrial Revolution or, not one, but two devastating world wars.

Only arrogance and pride born of separateness could challenge space and time with railroads and airplanes and guided missiles.

Only righteous malevolence would presume to harness the Strange power of special relativity to create an atomic bomb.

Only hatred driven by the illusion of separateness could produce conflicts and weapons horrible enough to shake us all out of the collective nightmare we call history.

Only institutionalized greed could concentrate enough wealth to wire the entire planet.

We have taken the long way around, my friends.

Somehow, amazingly, perhaps undeservedly, we are about to achieve global interactive connectivity without blowing ourselves up first.

The ways of natural selection are indeed Strange.

Some of you are going to cash in on the Internet and attain positions of power and influence.

Nature rewards a healthy appetite.

Some of you will create new technologies and companies and become comfortably wealthy.

Nature rewards acquisitiveness.

Nature rewards life-affirming behaviors that lead to a survival advantage for the species.

The illusion of separateness may have been necessary to push us to this threshold of realization.

But before we can Realize, before we can evolve, we must discard that illusion.

We must discard it like the space shuttle discards its solid rocket boosters.

We must discard it like an inflamed appendix.

The illusion of separateness has outlived its usefulness.

It is turning against us and subverting our destiny.

It is time to outgrow it. It is killing us.

And we, in this room, are the architects of its demise.

The point is that we are beginning to remember something we have all forgotten about ourselves.

Something wonderful about ourselves.

We don’t have the words in our Western languages to describe what that something might be.

But we can feel it. We can feel it.

So we’re doing what anyone who is having trouble describing something does.

We are trying to draw a picture of it.

We are struggling to construct a model of it.

We have succeeded in laying the foundations of that model.

And we have given our model a name.

We call it the World Wide Web.

By using the Web, by thinking about its possibilities, and especially by helping to build the Web, you are changing the way you realize the world.

You are changing your mind about the world.

The Web isn’t just something that is happening in the world.

It’s something that’s happening in you.

When people set up email accounts or personal Web sites or join chat rooms or create MUD personas, what are they doing, really?

They are saying to the world, I Am.

I Am.

I signify. I am part of a larger community.

I am part of something bigger than myself.

These are empowering acts.

These acts are an expression of hope.

These are spiritual acts.

Why is a game designer talking to you about spirituality?

The adjective spiritual simply refers to things which have no body, form or substance.

So spirituality is about things that are disembodied.

Things that are formless. Things that are insubstantial.

Things that are virtual.

Spiritual experiences are nothing to be ashamed about.

Spiritual experiences are, in fact, quite practical.

Spiritual experiences are, in fact, our business.

Ours will be an economy of spirits.

Some of you are now thoroughly embarrassed by my pretensions.

Some of you think that spiritual purposes are fuzzy-minded, and not respectable.

If the development of an effective spiritual technology does not interest you, then do it for your resume.

If being part of something bigger than yourself doesn’t inspire you with hope, then do it for your portfolio.

The reasons you use to justify your investment are not important.

The name of the spirit that moves you is not important.

What is important is that you are moving.

What is important is that you are building this.

We have to build this.

We’re not out of the woods yet.

We could still blow ourselves up before we build enough of this thing to recognize ourselves in it.

Everything else we have ever built will be for nothing if we fail to build this now.

Build this. Just build this.

You came to this conference because you sensed opportunity.

Your instinct was profoundly correct.

Conversation and multiplayer games are indeed the killer apps of the Internet.

The next big things. The Trojan horses.

Multiplayer games will attract scores of millions to the World Wide Web.

They’re easy to understand. They’re compelling.

They’re lots and lots of fun.

They will be a potent catalyst for global interactive connectivity.

They will help to bring us all together, at last.

They will help to bring us all together, again.

Are you ready to be a part of something bigger than yourself?

Are you ready to suspend your skepticism and entertain possibilities?

The possibility that something Strange and wonderful is trying to happen?

The possibility that the World Wide Web may be one of its manifestations?

Are you ready for the shock of recognition?

The point is that we are instruments of something bigger than ourselves.

We don’t know what this something is.

But we can feel it. We can feel it.

I call it “the point,” because the point is to find out what the point is.

The point is urgently prodding us.

The point is pointing at itself.

The point is infinitely small, and mathematically perfect.

The point has no volume, but it is never silent.

The point has no radius, but it is eternally radiant.

It is the shining Void. The empty Source.

It is expanding and collapsing simultaneously.

It is all-encompassing, and coincident with every other point in the universe.

The point is that there are no coincidences.

The point is that our hand is being guided here.

The point is that our attention is being fixed.

The point of this experiment is to achieve attention. Attention.

The point is not familiar.

The point is Strange. The point is Other.

The point is not contingent upon anything. Not even itself.

It is the First Cause. The Prime Mover.

The point is emergent.

The point is an emergency.

Emergency! Attention! The point is on fire!

But the point is inextinguishable.

The point is the burning bush.

The point is the I Am.

The I Am.

The point is not good.

The point is not evil.

The point is not even indifferent.

The point simply is. The point is.

The point is not an object or a noun.

The point is an action. The point is a verb.

The verb is to be.

The point is Being. It is Being.

The point is that we are don’t have to be alone anymore.

The point is that we have never been alone.

The point is that we can all be as one.

The point is that we are all one.

The point is that we are all one.

The point is that we are all one.

Fix your eyes upon the point, and together we will achieve attention.


Copyright © 1996-2016 Brian Moriarty. All rights reserved.