The Dem establishment and trans liberation

This post lines up the forks in a Bluesky discussion —

Reflecting on California governor Gavin Newsom taking a turn against trans liberation over bullshit about trans atheletes, Jamelle Bouie observes:

The thing about chasing what you think is public opinion is that if and when things turn you will have made a bunch of statements and taken a bunch of stances that you’ll have to disavow. probably a better strategy just to say what you actually believe and stand by it. anyway, this guy sucks.

John Rodgers underlines:

Interracial marriage did not cross 50% approval in the US until 1996, when I was 30 years old. Good political messaging drives opinion, it doesn’t follow it.

Newsom understands this better than almost every other major pol. His early, vigorous support for same-sex marriage — breaking with the Democratic Party by having San Francisco issue marriage licenses when he was mayor — bucked the conventional wisdom and moved public opinion practically overnight. It makes him especially culpable for his betrayal.

Sharp-eyed journalist David Forbes replied with sage wisdom:

I think an underrated part of this is the degree to which anti-trans bigotry is an elite phenomenon across political parties. That comes out in everything from the New York Times’ anti-trans crusade to, well, Newsom’s actions here.

The gentry leans conservative (also why Newsom and Kirk can chat like this). Cis gays in marriages? Outside the far-right they can go with that. But trans rights are driven by a working class movement that threatens some core status quos around gender and identity, so they're frantic to crush it.

I asked about reading trans liberation as a “working class” movement, since I tend to take elites as fearing trans liberation as an elite movement resisted by non-elites. Forbes continued:

In U.S. especially, elites always think they’re more salt of the earth than they are. Also: see painting rural gentry as working class.

Trans liberation gets painted otherwise, but overwhelmingly comes from poor / working class. On the ground a lot of “how dare they talk back to me” reaction from liberal pols.

Those elites viewed marriage as the concession (perhaps with some toothless non-discrimination laws too) so after that the “gay rights” box was checked. On the ground I see a fair amount of queerphobia from liberal pols around any continuing activism and about queers outside the elite.

One local pol (wealthy her entire life) exemplifies this. In private, contemptuous of trans organizing as “baristas with weird hair and pronouns” and felt that support for marriage a decade ago and a proclamation for pride each year was “more than enough.” Newsom’s turn ain’t all that surprising.

I suspect that part of the thing with marriage is how the Dem establishment were blindsided by how quickly popular opinion turned once Newsom broke the ice. Since they thought it would never fly, they have to rationalize that it burned up all the political capital. Of course all of that is animated by their own queerphobia which they do not want to admit to themselves.