18 September 2004

Dewey defeats Truman

Aha. Atrios points us at The Left Coaster who has discovered that Gallup's polls are nonsense.
Gallup ... assumes that this November 40% of those turning out to vote will be Republicans, and only 33% will be Democrat.
Does this represent the likely turnout? John Zogby says no.
If we look at the three last Presidential elections, the spread was 34% Democrats, 34% Republicans and 33% Independents (in 1992 with Ross Perot in the race); 39% Democrats, 34% Republicans, and 27% Independents in 1996; and 39% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 26% Independents in 2000.
You want to bet that Democrat turnout will be a bit better than 2000? I'll be happy to take your money if you think it won't.

No comments: