The Cosby Rule

We do not just fail to combat Missing Stairs doing sexual harassment and worse. We systemtically support predatory individuals. This is part of what feminists are talking about when we talk about rape culture.

As a result, many people understandably turn to trial-by-social-media as the only available way to get any kind of justice. I respect and support that; it is all too often the only available alternative to No Justice At All.

I confess to uneasiness with people who seem to embrace trial-by-social-media as not just a necessary expedient but a positive good.

In particular, I consider it important to take care with what we take as established fact without rigorous legal or journalistic support. We must never suggest that a false accusation is likely — they are vanishingly rare — but they are plausible, and exaggeration of the severity of wrongs is not just plausible but common when social media shitstorm dynamics really get moving.

We must never let that caution undercut our support for accusers. We must always give accusers our vigorous support: taking their accounts seriously, protecting them from harassment, giving them resources & reassurance through the painful process of facing trauma in public. Accusers need this because of how monstrously difficult we make it to make a public accusation of sexual misbehavior. The community needs this because it supports the countless other survivors of sexual harassment, assault, and worse.

But I do wish we would back away from expressing support for accusers with the aphorism “believe victims”: because radical credulity misunderstands the dynamics of trauma and creates an invitation for bad actors to stir up shitstorms.

There is no contradiction between supporting accusers and resisting shitstorms by dawdling to judgment. We have time. Public information usually gets stronger over time. The truth will out.

But sometimes the public does not have good enough information. I have a rubric in those situations I call “The Cosby Rule”:

1. A single allegation plausibly could be just bullshit. Support the accuser, and keep a weather eye on the accused from now on, but leave the pitchforks and torches at home.
2. Two allegations demonstrate that there is some there there, but exaggeration is plausible. Support the accusers, and keep the accused away from power, but hold off on treating the accused as a monster.
3. With three or more allegations, one can feel confident in knowing there is fire behind the smoke. Take at least the weakest allegation as solid.

If the accused really is a villain and we support their accusers, a lot more than three allegations will usually turn up.