There is a thing in American society which we call Success. I use the capital S here deliberately: I don’t mean success in achieving one’s goals, I mean Success in the primate-status-game sense of being recognized as Successful … and given power and opportunities.
Apropos of this I’ve been meaning for some time to write about Amanda Palmer’s TED Talk and have not done it because I have too much to say about it. As someone who has followed her for some time it was interesting to see her appearance in the TED venue make the rounds a while back.
There’s a moment I noticed in the talk when, after several minutes of attention to the amazing story she tells, she finally gets a big round of applause … by saying how much money her Kickstarter raised. Because yeah, the TED audience — of Successful people who paid big bucks to be there — is keeping score that way.
This helped me recognize something else about Success in her TED talk, about how one becomes a Success.
Being White and male and straight help, natch, though there are plenty of straight White guys who get nowhere near Success and Ms Palmer is only one of these things.
Palmer also lacks another important factor that Americans talk about less. I read an interview with a person who had done biographies of a bunch of Silicon Valley moguls, folks like Bill Gates and Michael Dell and Larry Ellison and Steve Jobs, and the interviewer asked them what they had in common. Surprisingly little, said the biographer, but I did notice that all but one of them has a trust fund from their parents. It turns out that to make it that kind of big, you have to bet the company, and do it repeatedly, and it really helps to do that if you don't need your job to pay the rent. So, family money. But plenty of folks with trust funds don't go on to Success.
So what about personal attributes? In my observation, there are three personal attributes that tend to support Success, and Palmer has all of them.
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Talent — being smart or specially capable really does open a door to Success, even if it is far from a guarantee.
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Ambition — some people stumble into Success but wanting it badly helps a lot.
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Narcissism — and here I mean not garden-variety narcissism, but the real deal pathological narcissism of believing that one is just plain better and more interesting and more deserving than everybody else, believing it such that one cannot even conceive otherwise.
I’m not joking about that last one, it’s the one we actively propagandize for in American society: you just have to believe in yourself. Each of those three tilts people toward Success. The combination of the three is unstoppable, the closest thing there is to a sure-fire formula for Success.
Amanda Palmer.
Bill Clinton.
Steve Jobs.
Oprah Winfrey.
Kanye West.
Madonna.
I think a great deal about how this has a lesson for us about the American “meritocracy” we have built.
Narcissism, Hubris, and Success
Rescuing a related post by Chris Dillow at Stumbling And Mumbling from linkrot:
I’ve seen two things recently suggesting that the rich and powerful are prone to what might be called psychological disorders. In The Establishment, Owen Jones says that top pay and MPs big expenses claims were driven by a narcissistic “because I’m worth it” mentality. And in the FT, Gillian Tett describes how successful managers are prone to hubris.
There’s something in this. Narcissism pays both across the wage distribution — because men who spend lots of time in front of the mirror earn more — and in the boardroom: narcissistic CEOs are better paid. And way back in 1986, Richard Roll said that value-destroying takeovers were often motivated by hubris (pdf) — though he was only echoing Kenneth Boulding’s warning (pdf) of 20 years earlier, that:
There is a great deal of evidence that almost all organizational structures tend to produce false images in the decision-maker, and that the larger and more authoritarian the organization the better the chance that its top decision-makers will be operating in purely imaginary worlds.
But I wonder: what exactly is the link between success and narcissistic overconfidence?
On the one hand, there might well be causality from hubris and narcissism to economic success. Narcissists have the thick skins which prevent them being disheartened by setbacks. And they give off more competence cues which hirers mistake for actual competence, and so are more likely to climb up the greasy pole.
However, I suspect there are also two other mechanisms here.
One is a selection effect. Many successful people can retire or downshift in their 40s because a few years of six-figure salaries and London house price inflation should allow one to build up a decent nest-egg: even with with interest rates at their present nugatory level, the price of a decent flat in Hampstead would give you an income of twice the median wage. This means that only narcissists and people daft enough to be “passionate” about their career stay in work long enough to become top managers.
Secondly, Gillian is right — success causes hubris. The thing here is that this can be true even if that success is due just to luck. A new paper by Christoph Merkle and colleagues shows that even neutral observers are fooled by randomness and so see skill where there is in fact only luck. Given the self-serving bias, it’s even more likely that managers will see their own success as due to skill rather than luck. Though this is well-documented in finance, I suspect it also happens in non-financial businesses as high profits here can sometimes be due to the good luck of tail risk not materializing.
I say all this for two reasons. First, to point out a paradox. On the one hand, people with some mental illnesses — depression, schizophrenia — suffer stigma and discrimination in the labour market. And yet on the other hand, the market actually favours and produces some other mental disorders. This might be consistent with a Szaszian view of mental illness.
Secondly, all this brings into question the efficiency of hierarchies: is it really a good idea to put power into the hands of people who are systematically irrational? Despite the fact that the collapse of the banking system in 2008 gave us a clear answer to this question, hierarchy persists. Which only confirms the success of the Establishment in creating a hyperreal economy in which evidence doesn’t matter.