Ignorance, and different kinds of Trump voters

Waking up to Trump’s victory in the 2024 election, I shared to social media the comment:

Most of Trump’s voters weren’t asking for what’s coming.

But they will embrace it when it arrives.

A wise friend challenged me for acting as an apologist for Trump voters. But this is an indictment of them.

My wise friend mistook me as suggesting that Trump voters are not really mean-spirited bigots. I recognize that Americans — not just Trump voters — broadly are mean-spirited bigots. I recognize that bigotry is integral to support for Trump.

But. Anyone reading this is likely to have a hard time understanding how bogglingly ignorant & misinformed most ordinary Americans are about politics.

As I learned from Chris Hayes before he was famous:

The undecideds I spoke to didn’t seem to have any intuitive grasp of what kinds of grievances qualify as political grievances. Often, once I would engage undecided voters, they would list concerns, such as the rising cost of health care; but when I would tell them that Kerry had a plan to lower health-care premiums, they would respond in disbelief — not in disbelief that he had a plan, but that the cost of health care was a political issue. It was as if you were telling them that Kerry was promising to extend summer into December.

I have done a little bit of political attitudes research for my day job. I can report from the field that it is not just “undecideds” who are that confused. Many people with strong party affiliation are in the dark. Left and right. College-educated and not.

I have had people ask who the Presidential candidates were. I have had people attributing Biden policies to Trump and vice versa. I have heard Democrats who hated Trump say that his first term proved that if he won it would not be that bad. They. Don’t. Know.

That ignorance is not a blessing. It does not make Trump voters less culpable. It does not protect us from what I see ahead. The same tendencies which produced that ignorance will make them rationalize every horror that comes. I have heard people say things that make my blood run cold.

It helps to break down Trump voters into three types, including two kinds of MAGAs.

Though with precious few exceptions MAGAs refuse to recognize themselves as fascists, that is what both types are. Fascists are driven by bigotry, drawn to the absurdities of fascist rhetoric which free them not just from moral responsibility but from having to think rationally at all.

Hard MAGAs have bloodlust. They do in fact dream of gunning down millions of people they hate et cetera. They know Haitian immigrants are not eating pet cats, but since Those People are inhuman monsters, they love the lie for getting at the “essential truth” that the suffering & death of Those People is a positive good in itself.

Soft MAGAs have doublethink. Horseshit to rationalize horrors — as good, as necessary, or as not actually horrible — works better the more preposterous it is because it distracts from facing the centrality of their bigotry. They “believe” that Haitian immigrants eating pet cats must be “true”: it “makes sense”, it justifies the fantasy they have of Getting Rid Of Those People. They don’t think about what that will require, and when the bloodshed does appear before them, these kinds of “beliefs” will justify their schadenfreude at the suffering & death.

Non-MAGA Trump voters do not think like fascists. They are bigots but it is not their central motivation in the same way. They prefer to look away from their own bigotry; the shame they feel about it compels them to deny they have it rather than to correct it as they should. They dislike the absurdities of MAGA, but see aligning with MAGA as “necessary” in the face of the Greater Evil of the nightmarish “radical left” Democratic Party. They have selected an information bubble which protects them from hearing the story about Haitian immigrants eating cats; Trump’s nonsense is irrelevant, they just have a thirdhand impression that he cares about the Important Problems facing Real Americans. If MAGA fascism guns down millions of people, they will deny that they knew and it will be half-true because they go out of their way to not know.

Both the bigotry and the support for horrors is equally monstrous in all three cases. Practically everyone in all three categories will help fascism build murder factories. I respect refusing to care about the machinery of their thinking and the degree to which they actively want what they will build, because the bottom line is the same.

But. If one wants to understand them — and there are instrumental reasons why one would — one has to see how only the hard MAGAs want murder factories as a positive good, while the dynamics are different for the others. My hand-wave-y guess is that about half of Trump voters are soft MAGAs, with non-MAGAs outnumbering hard MAGAs by a small margin.

From Milton Meyer’s book with the brilliant title They Thought They Were Free: The Germans 1933-45:

Outside, in the streets, in the general community, “everyone” is happy. One hears no protest, and certainly sees none. You know, in France or Italy there would be slogans against the government painted on walls and fences; in Germany, outside the great cities, perhaps, there is not even this. In the university community, in your own community, you speak privately to your colleagues, some of whom certainly feel as you do; but what do they say? They say, “It’s not so bad” or “You’re seeing things” or “You’re an alarmist.”

And you are an alarmist. You are saying that this must lead to this, and you can’t prove it. These are the beginnings, yes; but how do you know for sure when you don’t know the end, and how do you know, or even surmise, the end?

[⋯]

But the one great shocking occasion, when tens or hundreds or thousands will join with you, never comes. That’s the difficulty. If the last and worst act of the whole regime had come immediately after the first and smallest, thousands, yes, millions would have been sufficiently shocked — if, let us say, the gassing of the Jews in ’43 had come immediately after the “German Firm” stickers on the windows of non-Jewish shops in ’33. But of course this isn’t the way it happens. In between come all the hundreds of little steps, some of them imperceptible, each of them preparing you not to be shocked by the next. Step C is not so much worse than Step B, and, if you did not make a stand at Step B, why should you at Step C? And so on to Step D.

And one day, too late, your principles, if you were ever sensible of them, all rush in upon you. The burden of self-deception has grown too heavy, and some minor incident, in my case my little boy, hardly more than a baby, saying “Jewish swine,” collapses it all at once, and you see that everything, everything, has changed and changed completely under your nose. The world you live in — your nation, your people — is not the world you were born in at all. The forms are all there, all untouched, all reassuring, the houses, the shops, the jobs, the mealtimes, the visits, the concerts, the cinema, the holidays. But the spirit, which you never noticed because you made the lifelong mistake of identifying it with the forms, is changed. Now you live in a world of hate and fear, and the people who hate and fear do not even know it themselves; when everyone is transformed, no one is transformed. Now you live in a system which rules without responsibility even to God. The system itself could not have intended this in the beginning, but in order to sustain itself it was compelled to go all the way.

You have gone almost all the way yourself.