28%

President Bush's approval rating reads in the 20s for the first time.

There's probably some statistical noise in there; the next poll will probably have him at 30%.

Still. Notice the shape of that graph. Ezra Klien has a disconcerting observation.

Bush has had precisely two serious and sustained bumps. One came after a horrifying attack on the country, the second after he launched a horrifying attack on Iraq. His presidency, then, has been vampiric in nature, thriving when the republic waned and the body counts mounted. He has received precisely no big boosts for domestic policy priorities or achievements. And the trend, after 9/11, is down, down, down.

Assuming there's no bump coming to rescue him, the shape of that graph suggests that when the next President takes office, Bush's approval rating should be around 20%. Though I doubt it will really get that low. Nixon bottomed out at about 25%.